--- title: "Hollowpoint Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Hollowpoint Case ($229.46) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 86.91% over 761 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hollowpoint-case rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Hollowpoint Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hollowpoint-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Hollowpoint Case A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hollowpoint-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hollowpoint-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hollowpoint-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hollowpoint-case?window=all) Price · $229.46 · 353 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $206.51 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.91% · 761 openings, odds method Variance · 15.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 36 openings · below min 7 days · 94.63% ±34.28 521 openings 30 days · 86.91% ±28.36 761 openings since tracking started · 86.91% ±28.36 761 openings -0.5% 88.0% 176.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hollowpoint-case?window=24h) | 36 | 45.39% ±130.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hollowpoint-case?window=7d) | 521 | 94.63% ±34.3 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hollowpoint-case) | 761 | 86.91% ±28.4 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hollowpoint-case?window=all) | 761 | 86.91% ±28.4 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 795 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $9,088 13,981 gems | 22.0% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.75× | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $5,234 8,053 gems | 25.3% | 6 | 8.0 | 0.75× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $2,996 4,609 gems | 21.8% | 13 | 11.9 | 1.09× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,625 2,500 gems | 15.7% | 18 | 15.9 | 1.13× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 50 | $468 720 gems | 4.5% | 15 | 15.9 | 0.94× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $261 401 gems | 3.8% | 28 | 23.8 | 1.17× | | [★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $123 189 gems | 3.0% | 41 | 39.8 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 10.0% | $37.71 58.02 gems | 1.8% | 80 | 79.5 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $10.11 15.55 gems | 0.7% | 110 | 119.3 | 0.92× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) | 60.0% | $4.49 6.91 gems | 1.3% | 481 | 477.0 | 1.01× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $229 353 gems $9,088 13,981 gems 39.61x 2026-11-05 23:25 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $229 353 gems $9,088 13,981 gems 39.61x 2026-11-04 19:27 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $229 353 gems $9,088 13,981 gems 39.61x 2026-11-04 00:17 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $229 353 gems $5,234 8,053 gems 22.81x 2026-11-09 09:48 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $229 353 gems $5,234 8,053 gems 22.81x 2026-11-08 21:16 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $229 353 gems $5,234 8,053 gems 22.81x 2026-11-06 22:11 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $229 353 gems $5,234 8,053 gems 22.81x 2026-11-05 12:28 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $229 353 gems $5,234 8,053 gems 22.81x 2026-11-04 19:50 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $229 353 gems $5,234 8,053 gems 22.81x 2026-11-03 21:10 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $229 353 gems $2,996 4,609 gems 13.06x 2026-11-10 20:29 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=hollowpoint-case) [StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) Hidden $229 353 gems $4.49 6.91 gems 0.02x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $229 353 gems $261 401 gems 1.14x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) Hidden $229 353 gems $4.49 6.91 gems 0.02x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) Hidden $229 353 gems $10.11 15.55 gems 0.04x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) Hidden $229 353 gems $10.11 15.55 gems 0.04x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) [BOTAIRTXonKICK Refbot,ai 50kLBs](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/BOTAIRTXonKICK%20Refbot%2Cai%2050kLBs) $229 353 gems $37.71 58.02 gems 0.16x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) Hidden $229 353 gems $10.11 15.55 gems 0.04x 2026-11-10 20:29 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) Hidden $229 353 gems $4.49 6.91 gems 0.02x 2026-11-10 20:29 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) Hidden $229 353 gems $4.49 6.91 gems 0.02x 2026-11-10 20:29 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $229 353 gems $2,996 4,609 gems 13.06x 2026-11-10 20:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $229 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 0.5% legendary 2.5% covert 19.0% Immortal 3.0% uncommon 15.0% classified 60.0% best hit $9,088 (39.61x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt