--- title: "Hostage Situation case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Hostage Situation ($170.85) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 86.81% over 155 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hostage-situation rendered: 2026-11-11T17:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Hostage Situation](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hostage-situation) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Hostage Situation A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hostage-situation?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hostage-situation?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hostage-situation) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hostage-situation?window=all) Price · $170.85 · 263 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $153.77 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.81% · 155 openings, odds method Variance · 3.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 30 openings · below min 7 days · 72.22% ±35.30 117 openings 30 days · 86.81% ±30.67 155 openings since tracking started · 86.81% ±30.67 155 openings 36.5% 108.7% 181.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hostage-situation?window=24h) | 30 | 110.76% ±69.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hostage-situation?window=7d) | 117 | 72.22% ±35.3 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hostage-situation) | 155 | 86.81% ±30.7 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hostage-situation?window=all) | 155 | 86.81% ±30.7 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 170 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1,127 1,734 gems | 73.3% | 17 | 17.0 | 1.00× | | [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-factory-new) | 20.0% | $192 295 gems | 25.0% | 32 | 34.0 | 0.94× | | [M4A4 \| Zirka (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $23.87 36.72 gems | 0.8% | 6 | 8.5 | 0.71× | | [AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $19.62 30.19 gems | 0.6% | 6 | 8.5 | 0.71× | | [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-factory-new) | 30.0% | $1.16 1.79 gems | 0.2% | 56 | 51.0 | 1.10× | | [MP5-SD \| Condition Zero (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-condition-zero-factory-new) | 30.0% | $0.50 0.77 gems | 0.1% | 53 | 51.0 | 1.04× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $171 263 gems $1,127 1,734 gems 6.60x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $171 263 gems $1,127 1,734 gems 6.60x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $171 263 gems $1,127 1,734 gems 6.60x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $171 263 gems $1,127 1,734 gems 6.60x 2026-11-10 21:59 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $171 263 gems $1,127 1,734 gems 6.60x 2026-11-10 04:48 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $171 263 gems $1,127 1,734 gems 6.60x 2026-11-10 04:43 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $171 263 gems $1,127 1,734 gems 6.60x 2026-11-10 04:43 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $171 263 gems $1,127 1,734 gems 6.60x 2026-11-08 23:51 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $171 263 gems $1,127 1,734 gems 6.60x 2026-11-05 09:58 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $171 263 gems $1,127 1,734 gems 6.60x 2026-11-04 04:42 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=hostage-situation) [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $171 263 gems $1,127 1,734 gems 6.60x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [SSG 08 | Death Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-factory-new) Hidden $171 263 gems $192 295 gems 1.12x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [SSG 08 | Death Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-factory-new) Hidden $171 263 gems $192 295 gems 1.12x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [SSG 08 | Death Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-factory-new) Hidden $171 263 gems $192 295 gems 1.12x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $171 263 gems $1,127 1,734 gems 6.60x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $171 263 gems $1,127 1,734 gems 6.60x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [MP5-SD | Condition Zero (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-condition-zero-factory-new) Hidden $171 263 gems $0.50 0.77 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-factory-new) Hidden $171 263 gems $1.16 1.79 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [MP5-SD | Condition Zero (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-condition-zero-factory-new) Hidden $171 263 gems $0.50 0.77 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-factory-new) Hidden $171 263 gems $1.16 1.79 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $171 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% classified 25.0% restricted 5.0% mil spec 30.0% Rare 30.0% best hit $1,127 (6.60x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt