--- title: "Hypnotic case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Hypnotic ($6.76) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.92% from 10 items with odds, observed 94.37% over 2,961 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hypnotic rendered: 2026-11-11T14:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Hypnotic](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hypnotic) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Hypnotic A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hypnotic?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hypnotic?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hypnotic) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hypnotic?window=all) Price · $6.76 · 10.4 gems Advertised RTP · 89.92% · EV $6.08 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.37% · 2,961 openings, odds method Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 98.09% ±16.76 419 openings 7 days · 93.18% ±6.77 2,571 openings 30 days · 94.37% ±6.30 2,961 openings since tracking started · 94.37% ±6.30 2,961 openings 80.5% 98.0% 115.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hypnotic?window=24h) | 419 | 98.09% ±16.8 | +1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hypnotic?window=7d) | 2,571 | 93.18% ±6.77 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hypnotic) | 2,961 | 94.37% ±6.30 | +1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hypnotic?window=all) | 2,961 | 94.37% ±6.30 | +1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,979 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $66.96 103 gems | 11.0% | 33 | 29.8 | 1.11× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $55.91 86.02 gems | 18.4% | 66 | 59.6 | 1.11× | | [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $32.27 49.65 gems | 15.9% | 95 | 89.4 | 1.06× | | [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $22.95 35.3 gems | 15.1% | 123 | 119.2 | 1.03× | | [USP-S \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $12.81 19.71 gems | 10.5% | 159 | 148.9 | 1.07× | | [SCAR-20 \| Magna Carta (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-magna-carta-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $7.78 11.97 gems | 7.7% | 170 | 178.7 | 0.95× | | [MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $6.97 10.72 gems | 8.0% | 208 | 208.5 | 1.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $4.49 6.91 gems | 5.9% | 238 | 238.3 | 1.00× | | [P250 \| Visions (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $1.63 2.5 gems | 2.4% | 253 | 268.1 | 0.94× | | [XM1014 \| Ziggy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-factory-new) | 55.0% | $0.55 0.85 gems | 5.0% | 1,634 | 1638.5 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=hypnotic) [XM1014 | Ziggy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-factory-new) Hidden $6.76 10.4 gems $0.55 0.85 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC [USP-S | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.76 10.4 gems $12.81 19.71 gems 1.90x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC [XM1014 | Ziggy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-factory-new) [Winksy89](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Winksy89) $6.76 10.4 gems $0.55 0.85 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC [XM1014 | Ziggy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-factory-new) Hidden $6.76 10.4 gems $0.55 0.85 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC [XM1014 | Ziggy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-factory-new) Hidden $6.76 10.4 gems $0.55 0.85 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) [Winksy89](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Winksy89) $6.76 10.4 gems $4.49 6.91 gems 0.66x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC [P250 | Visions (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.76 10.4 gems $1.63 2.5 gems 0.24x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC [XM1014 | Ziggy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-factory-new) Hidden $6.76 10.4 gems $0.55 0.85 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC [MP9 | Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) [Winksy89](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Winksy89) $6.76 10.4 gems $6.97 10.72 gems 1.03x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC [P250 | Visions (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.76 10.4 gems $1.63 2.5 gems 0.24x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $6.76 | 89.92% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 14.0% covert knife 2.0% covert 3.0% restricted 11.0% #4b69ff 6.0% pink 9.0% violet 55.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.92 on average: an expected loss of $10.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt