--- title: "Illegal case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Illegal ($200.81) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 63.10% over 761 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/illegal rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Illegal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/illegal) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Illegal A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/illegal?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/illegal?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/illegal) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/illegal?window=all) Price · $200.81 · 309 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $180.73 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 63.10% · 761 openings, odds method Variance · 21.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 67 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 66 openings · below min 7 days · 70.09% ±35.74 637 openings 30 days · 63.10% ±32.69 761 openings since tracking started · 63.10% ±32.69 761 openings -0.5% 106.3% 213.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/illegal?window=24h) | 66 | 101.31% ±111.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/illegal?window=7d) | 637 | 70.09% ±35.7 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/illegal) | 761 | 63.10% ±32.7 | −1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/illegal?window=all) | 761 | 63.10% ±32.7 | −1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 827 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $8,076 12,425 gems | 22.3% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.73× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $5,711 8,787 gems | 31.6% | 9 | 8.3 | 1.09× | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $4,079 6,276 gems | 22.6% | 4 | 8.3 | 0.48× | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $2,483 3,820 gems | 13.7% | 5 | 8.3 | 0.60× | | [Sticker \| Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) | 1 in 67 | $633 974 gems | 5.3% | 17 | 12.4 | 1.37× | | [Howl Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/howl-pin) | 10.0% | $30.47 46.88 gems | 1.7% | 97 | 82.7 | 1.17× | | [Charm \| Hot Howl charm · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-howl) | 10.0% | $27.03 41.59 gems | 1.5% | 85 | 82.7 | 1.03× | | [Patch \| Howl patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-howl) | 15.0% | $8.92 13.72 gems | 0.7% | 133 | 124.0 | 1.07× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Howling Dawn graffiti · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-howling-dawn) | 30.0% | $2.94 4.53 gems | 0.5% | 244 | 248.1 | 0.98× | | [Sticker \| Baby Howl sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-howl) | 30.0% | $0.47 0.73 gems | 0.1% | 230 | 248.1 | 0.93× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $201 309 gems $8,076 12,425 gems 40.22x 2026-11-07 07:50 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $201 309 gems $8,076 12,425 gems 40.22x 2026-11-04 17:52 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $201 309 gems $8,076 12,425 gems 40.22x 2026-11-03 00:06 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $201 309 gems $5,711 8,787 gems 28.44x 2026-11-11 07:37 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $201 309 gems $5,711 8,787 gems 28.44x 2026-11-10 12:26 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $201 309 gems $5,711 8,787 gems 28.44x 2026-11-10 09:25 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $201 309 gems $5,711 8,787 gems 28.44x 2026-11-09 01:09 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [Smiling Goose](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Smiling%20Goose) $201 309 gems $5,711 8,787 gems 28.44x 2026-11-09 01:09 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $201 309 gems $5,711 8,787 gems 28.44x 2026-11-08 19:20 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $201 309 gems $5,711 8,787 gems 28.44x 2026-11-03 03:22 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=illegal) [Sealed Graffiti | Howling Dawn graffiti · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-howling-dawn) Hidden $201 309 gems $2.94 4.53 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC [Sticker | Baby Howl sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-howl) Hidden $201 309 gems $0.47 0.73 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC [Howl Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/howl-pin) Hidden $201 309 gems $30.47 46.88 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC [Sticker | Baby Howl sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-howl) Hidden $201 309 gems $0.47 0.73 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC [Patch | Howl patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-howl) Hidden $201 309 gems $8.92 13.72 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC [Sticker | Baby Howl sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-howl) [Kick/HarryJZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Kick%2FHarryJZ) $201 309 gems $0.47 0.73 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC [Patch | Howl patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-howl) Hidden $201 309 gems $8.92 13.72 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 10:43 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) Hidden $201 309 gems $633 974 gems 3.15x 2026-11-11 10:43 UTC [Sticker | Baby Howl sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-howl) Hidden $201 309 gems $0.47 0.73 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:43 UTC [Sticker | Baby Howl sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-howl) Hidden $201 309 gems $0.47 0.73 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $201 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 5.0% extraordinary 10.0% Ancient 10.0% exotic 15.0% Exotic 30.0% high 30.0% best hit $8,076 (40.22x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt