--- title: "Imaginary case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Imaginary ($54.08) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 12 items with odds, observed 107.65% over 1,944 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/imaginary rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Imaginary](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/imaginary) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Imaginary A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/imaginary?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/imaginary?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/imaginary) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/imaginary?window=all) Price · $54.08 · 83.2 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $48.67 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 107.65% · 1,944 openings, odds method Variance · 87.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 333 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 157 openings · below min 7 days · 108.09% ±44.67 1,676 openings 30 days · 107.65% ±41.48 1,944 openings since tracking started · 107.65% ±41.48 1,944 openings 63.0% 241.8% 420.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/imaginary?window=24h) | 157 | 273.94% ±146.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/imaginary?window=7d) | 1,676 | 108.09% ±44.7 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/imaginary) | 1,944 | 107.65% ±41.5 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/imaginary?window=all) | 1,944 | 107.65% ±41.5 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,980 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $12.2K 18,700 gems | 25.0% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.01× | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $7,310 11,245 gems | 15.0% | 4 | 2.0 | 2.02× | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $5,720 8,800 gems | 11.8% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.52× | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,640 5,599 gems | 7.5% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,067 3,180 gems | 4.2% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.01× | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,625 2,500 gems | 3.3% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,134 1,744 gems | 2.3% | 6 | 2.0 | 3.03× | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $941 1,448 gems | 1.9% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× | | [Sticker \| Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) | 1 in 1,000 | $722 1,112 gems | 1.5% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× | | [P250 \| Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) | 30.0% | $26.14 40.22 gems | 16.1% | 574 | 594.0 | 0.97× | | [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-factory-new) | 30.0% | $10.32 15.88 gems | 6.4% | 599 | 594.0 | 1.01× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 39.1% | $6.18 9.51 gems | 5.0% | 787 | 774.2 | 1.02× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $54.08 83.2 gems $12.2K 18,700 gems 224.8x 2026-11-10 18:53 UTC [Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $54.08 83.2 gems $12.2K 18,700 gems 224.8x 2026-11-05 19:41 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) Hidden $54.08 83.2 gems $7,310 11,245 gems 135.2x 2026-11-10 18:55 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) Hidden $54.08 83.2 gems $7,310 11,245 gems 135.2x 2026-11-07 21:47 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) [conq](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/conq) $54.08 83.2 gems $7,310 11,245 gems 135.2x 2026-11-07 21:38 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) Hidden $54.08 83.2 gems $7,310 11,245 gems 135.2x 2026-11-04 17:50 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) Hidden $54.08 83.2 gems $5,720 8,800 gems 105.8x 2026-11-08 01:27 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) Hidden $54.08 83.2 gems $5,720 8,800 gems 105.8x 2026-11-05 21:55 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) Hidden $54.08 83.2 gems $5,720 8,800 gems 105.8x 2026-11-03 09:25 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [Miba](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Miba) $54.08 83.2 gems $3,640 5,599 gems 67.30x 2026-11-04 02:12 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=imaginary) [USP-S | Jawbreaker (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-factory-new) Hidden $54.08 83.2 gems $10.32 15.88 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $54.08 83.2 gems $6.18 9.51 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [USP-S | Jawbreaker (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-factory-new) Hidden $54.08 83.2 gems $10.32 15.88 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $54.08 83.2 gems $6.18 9.51 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $54.08 83.2 gems $6.18 9.51 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [USP-S | Jawbreaker (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-factory-new) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $54.08 83.2 gems $10.32 15.88 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [P250 | Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) Hidden $54.08 83.2 gems $26.14 40.22 gems 0.48x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC [USP-S | Jawbreaker (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-factory-new) Hidden $54.08 83.2 gems $10.32 15.88 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC [USP-S | Jawbreaker (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-factory-new) Hidden $54.08 83.2 gems $10.32 15.88 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC [USP-S | Jawbreaker (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-factory-new) Hidden $54.08 83.2 gems $10.32 15.88 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $54.08 | 89.99% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.1% covert 0.6% restricted 0.1% contraband 0.1% classified 69.1% pink 30.0% best hit $12.2K (224.8x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt