--- title: "Impact Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Impact Case ($82.71) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 94.96% over 182 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/impact-case rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Impact Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/impact-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Impact Case A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/impact-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/impact-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/impact-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/impact-case?window=all) Price · $82.71 · 127 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $74.44 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.96% · 182 openings, odds method Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 95.59% ±22.77 167 openings 30 days · 94.96% ±21.81 182 openings since tracking started · 94.96% ±21.81 182 openings -0.5% 94.0% 188.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/impact-case?window=24h) | 4 | 40.63% ±147.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/impact-case?window=7d) | 167 | 95.59% ±22.8 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/impact-case) | 182 | 94.96% ±21.8 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/impact-case?window=all) | 182 | 94.96% ±21.8 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 182 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $479 737 gems | 32.2% | 8 | 9.1 | 0.88× | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $297 457 gems | 20.0% | 10 | 9.1 | 1.10× | | [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $234 360 gems | 15.7% | 13 | 9.1 | 1.43× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $179 275 gems | 12.0% | 11 | 9.1 | 1.21× | | [AWP \| LongDog (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $91.65 141 gems | 6.2% | 6 | 9.1 | 0.66× | | [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $57.43 88.35 gems | 3.9% | 7 | 9.1 | 0.77× | | [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-field-tested) | 10.0% | $32.36 49.78 gems | 4.3% | 24 | 18.2 | 1.32× | | [Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-eastern-enigma-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $19.18 29.51 gems | 2.6% | 18 | 18.2 | 0.99× | | [USP-S \| Stainless (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $7.40 11.39 gems | 2.0% | 35 | 36.4 | 0.96× | | [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $3.03 4.66 gems | 1.2% | 50 | 54.6 | 0.92× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=impact-case) [AWP | LongDog (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-minimal-wear) Hidden $82.71 127 gems $91.65 141 gems 1.11x 2026-11-10 21:31 UTC [USP-S | Stainless (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-minimal-wear) [$1k LB - Code \*STV\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%241k%20LB%20-%20Code%20*STV*-8659005) $82.71 127 gems $7.40 11.39 gems 0.09x 2026-11-10 21:31 UTC [Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-minimal-wear) Hidden $82.71 127 gems $3.03 4.66 gems 0.04x 2026-11-10 21:31 UTC [Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-field-tested) [$1k LB - Code \*STV\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%241k%20LB%20-%20Code%20*STV*-8659005) $82.71 127 gems $32.36 49.78 gems 0.39x 2026-11-10 21:31 UTC [Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-field-tested) Hidden $82.71 127 gems $32.36 49.78 gems 0.39x 2026-11-10 03:03 UTC [AK-47 | B the Monster (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-factory-new) Hidden $82.71 127 gems $234 360 gems 2.83x 2026-11-10 03:03 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) Hidden $82.71 127 gems $179 275 gems 2.16x 2026-11-10 03:03 UTC [USP-S | Stainless (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-minimal-wear) Hidden $82.71 127 gems $7.40 11.39 gems 0.09x 2026-11-10 03:03 UTC [Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-minimal-wear) Hidden $82.71 127 gems $3.03 4.66 gems 0.04x 2026-11-10 03:03 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) [Lost Panda](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Lost%20Panda) $82.71 127 gems $179 275 gems 2.16x 2026-11-10 03:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $82.71 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Classified 5.0% covert 10.0% legendary 10.0% rare 5.0% red 10.0% classified 10.0% mil spec 20.0% restricted 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt