--- title: "Imperialist case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Imperialist ($70.34) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 82.63% over 1,239 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/imperialist rendered: 2026-11-11T18:12Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Imperialist](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/imperialist) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Imperialist A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/imperialist?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/imperialist?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/imperialist) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/imperialist?window=all) Price · $70.34 · 108 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $63.31 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.63% · 1,239 openings, odds method Variance · 5.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 111.51% ±40.03 131 openings 7 days · 83.10% ±13.66 1,124 openings 30 days · 82.63% ±13.02 1,239 openings since tracking started · 82.63% ±13.02 1,239 openings 69.0% 110.5% 152.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/imperialist?window=24h) | 131 | 111.51% ±40.0 | +1.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/imperialist?window=7d) | 1,124 | 83.10% ±13.7 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/imperialist) | 1,239 | 82.63% ±13.0 | −1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/imperialist?window=all) | 1,239 | 82.63% ±13.0 | −1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,287 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $649 999 gems | 51.3% | 54 | 64.3 | 0.84× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Field-Tested) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $437 672 gems | 34.5% | 70 | 64.3 | 1.09× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 10.0% | $64.51 99.25 gems | 10.2% | 134 | 128.7 | 1.04× | | [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 10.0% | $14.59 22.44 gems | 2.3% | 121 | 128.7 | 0.94× | | [P250 \| Red Rock (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $3.09 4.75 gems | 0.7% | 216 | 193.0 | 1.12× | | [Nova \| Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-red-quartz-factory-new) | 25.0% | $2.49 3.83 gems | 1.0% | 317 | 321.7 | 0.99× | | [MP9 \| Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-factory-new) | 30.0% | $0.07 0.11 gems | 0.0% | 375 | 386.1 | 0.97× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $70.34 108 gems $649 999 gems 9.23x 2026-11-11 17:41 UTC [★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $70.34 108 gems $649 999 gems 9.23x 2026-11-11 17:41 UTC [★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $70.34 108 gems $649 999 gems 9.23x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC [★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $70.34 108 gems $649 999 gems 9.23x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC [★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) [liamessex26](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/liamessex26) $70.34 108 gems $649 999 gems 9.23x 2026-11-11 07:41 UTC [★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $70.34 108 gems $649 999 gems 9.23x 2026-11-11 02:06 UTC [★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $70.34 108 gems $649 999 gems 9.23x 2026-11-11 02:06 UTC [★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $70.34 108 gems $649 999 gems 9.23x 2026-11-11 02:06 UTC [★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $70.34 108 gems $649 999 gems 9.23x 2026-11-10 16:37 UTC [★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $70.34 108 gems $649 999 gems 9.23x 2026-11-10 15:13 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=imperialist) [★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $70.34 108 gems $649 999 gems 9.23x 2026-11-11 17:41 UTC [Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-red-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $70.34 108 gems $2.49 3.83 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 17:41 UTC [★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $70.34 108 gems $649 999 gems 9.23x 2026-11-11 17:41 UTC [Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-red-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $70.34 108 gems $2.49 3.83 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 17:41 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Field-Tested) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-field-tested) Hidden $70.34 108 gems $437 672 gems 6.21x 2026-11-11 17:41 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-factory-new) [\[MLP\] Pinkie Pie](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%5BMLP%5D%20%20Pinkie%20Pie) $70.34 108 gems $0.07 0.11 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:41 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Field-Tested) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-field-tested) Hidden $70.34 108 gems $437 672 gems 6.21x 2026-11-11 17:38 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-factory-new) Hidden $70.34 108 gems $0.07 0.11 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:38 UTC [AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) Hidden $70.34 108 gems $14.59 22.44 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 17:38 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-factory-new) [\[MLP\] Pinkie Pie](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%5BMLP%5D%20%20Pinkie%20Pie) $70.34 108 gems $0.07 0.11 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $70.34 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 5.0% sunny 5.0% extraordinary 10.0% Ancient 10.0% restricted 40.0% Rare 30.0% best hit $649 (9.23x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt