--- title: "Jade Dynasty case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Jade Dynasty ($41.17) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 82.88% over 298 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jade-dynasty rendered: 2026-11-11T18:01Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Jade Dynasty](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jade-dynasty) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Jade Dynasty A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jade-dynasty?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jade-dynasty?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jade-dynasty) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jade-dynasty?window=all) Price · $41.17 · 63.34 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $37.05 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.88% · 298 openings, odds method Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 22 openings · below min 7 days · 86.20% ±26.12 219 openings 30 days · 82.88% ±22.39 298 openings since tracking started · 82.88% ±22.39 298 openings -0.5% 70.8% 142.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jade-dynasty?window=24h) | 22 | 58.89% ±82.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jade-dynasty?window=7d) | 219 | 86.20% ±26.1 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jade-dynasty) | 298 | 82.88% ±22.4 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jade-dynasty?window=all) | 298 | 82.88% ±22.4 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 316 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 20 | $372 572 gems | 50.2% | 14 | 15.8 | 0.89× | | [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) | 10.0% | $80.24 123 gems | 21.7% | 30 | 31.6 | 0.95× | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-field-tested) | 10.0% | $60.61 93.24 gems | 16.4% | 32 | 31.6 | 1.01× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-factory-new) | 10.0% | $14.40 22.16 gems | 3.9% | 33 | 31.6 | 1.04× | | [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-field-tested) | 10.0% | $11.05 17 gems | 3.0% | 31 | 31.6 | 0.98× | | [Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $7.49 11.52 gems | 2.0% | 30 | 31.6 | 0.95× | | [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 10.0% | $5.17 7.95 gems | 1.4% | 29 | 31.6 | 0.92× | | [MP5-SD \| Bamboo Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-bamboo-garden-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $2.74 4.22 gems | 0.7% | 29 | 31.6 | 0.92× | | [Galil AR \| Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.89 2.91 gems | 0.5% | 35 | 31.6 | 1.11× | | [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $0.69 1.06 gems | 0.3% | 53 | 47.4 | 1.12× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=jade-dynasty) [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) Hidden $41.17 63.34 gems $5.17 7.95 gems 0.13x 2026-11-10 22:37 UTC [MP5-SD | Bamboo Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-bamboo-garden-minimal-wear) Hidden $41.17 63.34 gems $2.74 4.22 gems 0.07x 2026-11-10 22:37 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) Hidden $41.17 63.34 gems $1.89 2.91 gems 0.05x 2026-11-10 22:37 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $41.17 63.34 gems $372 572 gems 9.03x 2026-11-10 22:37 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hot Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-minimal-wear) Hidden $41.17 63.34 gems $7.49 11.52 gems 0.18x 2026-11-10 22:37 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) [Helqxz](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Helqxz) $41.17 63.34 gems $1.89 2.91 gems 0.05x 2026-11-10 22:37 UTC [AK-47 | Wintergreen (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-battle-scarred) Hidden $41.17 63.34 gems $0.69 1.06 gems 0.02x 2026-11-10 22:11 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) Hidden $41.17 63.34 gems $1.89 2.91 gems 0.05x 2026-11-10 22:11 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hot Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-minimal-wear) Hidden $41.17 63.34 gems $7.49 11.52 gems 0.18x 2026-11-10 22:11 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) Hidden $41.17 63.34 gems $5.17 7.95 gems 0.13x 2026-11-10 22:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $41.17 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.0% classified 30.0% mil spec 10.0% industrial 10.0% violet 10.0% consumer 10.0% Rare 10.0% blue 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt