--- title: "Jester’s Gambit case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Jester’s Gambit ($14.19) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 10 items with odds, observed 83.87% over 1,278 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jesters-gambit rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Jester’s Gambit](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jesters-gambit) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Jester’s Gambit A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jesters-gambit?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jesters-gambit?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jesters-gambit) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jesters-gambit?window=all) Price · $14.19 · 21.83 gems Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $12.77 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.87% · 1,278 openings, odds method Variance · 3.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 95.77% ±22.62 286 openings 7 days · 82.70% ±11.65 1,078 openings 30 days · 83.87% ±10.70 1,278 openings since tracking started · 83.87% ±10.70 1,278 openings 70.5% 94.8% 119.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jesters-gambit?window=24h) | 286 | 95.77% ±22.6 | +0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jesters-gambit?window=7d) | 1,078 | 82.70% ±11.7 | −1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jesters-gambit) | 1,278 | 83.87% ±10.7 | −1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jesters-gambit?window=all) | 1,278 | 83.87% ±10.7 | −1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,305 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $122 187 gems | 47.7% | 52 | 65.3 | 0.80× | | [AWP \| Exothermic (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $51.04 78.53 gems | 20.0% | 72 | 65.3 | 1.10× | | [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $29.00 44.61 gems | 11.4% | 77 | 65.3 | 1.18× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $12.47 19.18 gems | 4.9% | 56 | 65.3 | 0.86× | | [Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-factory-new) | 10.0% | $7.75 11.92 gems | 6.1% | 115 | 130.5 | 0.88× | | [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-factory-new) | 10.0% | $4.45 6.84 gems | 3.5% | 122 | 130.5 | 0.93× | | [Zeus x27 \| Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-earth-mandala-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $2.07 3.18 gems | 2.4% | 212 | 195.8 | 1.08× | | [MP7 \| Coral Paisley (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-coral-paisley-factory-new) | 15.0% | $1.74 2.68 gems | 2.0% | 201 | 195.8 | 1.03× | | [MP5-SD \| Picnic (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-picnic-factory-new) | 15.0% | $1.06 1.63 gems | 1.2% | 187 | 195.8 | 0.96× | | [XM1014 \| XoooM (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xooom-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.71 1.09 gems | 0.8% | 211 | 195.8 | 1.08× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=jesters-gambit) [Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-earth-mandala-minimal-wear) Hidden $14.19 21.83 gems $2.07 3.18 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC [Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-earth-mandala-minimal-wear) Hidden $14.19 21.83 gems $2.07 3.18 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC [M4A1-S | Party Animal (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-factory-new) Hidden $14.19 21.83 gems $122 187 gems 8.58x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC [XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xooom-factory-new) [Aggressive Moose](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Aggressive%20Moose) $14.19 21.83 gems $0.71 1.09 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC [MP7 | Coral Paisley (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-coral-paisley-factory-new) Hidden $14.19 21.83 gems $1.74 2.68 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 18:30 UTC [Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-earth-mandala-minimal-wear) Hidden $14.19 21.83 gems $2.07 3.18 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:30 UTC [MP7 | Coral Paisley (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-coral-paisley-factory-new) Hidden $14.19 21.83 gems $1.74 2.68 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 18:30 UTC [Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-earth-mandala-minimal-wear) [Aggressive Moose](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Aggressive%20Moose) $14.19 21.83 gems $2.07 3.18 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:30 UTC [USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-factory-new) Hidden $14.19 21.83 gems $29.00 44.61 gems 2.04x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC [UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-factory-new) Hidden $14.19 21.83 gems $4.45 6.84 gems 0.31x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $14.19 | 89.98% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed pink 5.0% Mythical 10.0% #4b69ff 25.0% Rare 15.0% #5e98d9 30.0% Uncommon 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt