--- title: "Jingle Bells case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Jingle Bells ($1.96) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 8 items with odds, observed 89.04% over 11.7K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jingle-bells rendered: 2026-11-11T19:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Jingle Bells](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jingle-bells) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Jingle Bells A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jingle-bells?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jingle-bells?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jingle-bells) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jingle-bells?window=all) Price · $1.96 · 3.01 gems Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $1.76 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.04% · 11.7K openings, odds method Variance · 3.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 93.81% ±11.87 882 openings 7 days · 88.37% ±3.50 10.1K openings 30 days · 89.04% ±3.26 11.7K openings since tracking started · 89.04% ±3.26 11.7K openings 81.5% 94.0% 106.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jingle-bells?window=24h) | 882 | 93.81% ±11.9 | +0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jingle-bells?window=7d) | 10.1K | 88.37% ±3.50 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jingle-bells) | 11.7K | 89.04% ±3.26 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jingle-bells?window=all) | 11.7K | 89.04% ±3.26 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $14.98 23.05 gems | 42.6% | 581 | 597.9 | 0.97× | | [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $5.97 9.19 gems | 17.0% | 607 | 597.9 | 1.02× | | [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $5.45 8.38 gems | 15.5% | 585 | 597.9 | 0.98× | | [AWP \| Mortis (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $4.29 6.6 gems | 12.2% | 616 | 597.9 | 1.03× | | [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.68 1.04 gems | 1.9% | 547 | 597.9 | 0.91× | | [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $0.29 0.45 gems | 4.2% | 3,079 | 2989.5 | 1.03× | | [SCAR-20 \| Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) | 25.0% | $0.24 0.37 gems | 3.4% | 2,989 | 2989.5 | 1.00× | | [MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-liquidation-factory-new) | 25.0% | $0.23 0.36 gems | 3.3% | 2,954 | 2989.6 | 0.99× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=jingle-bells) [G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.96 3.01 gems $0.29 0.45 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 19:19 UTC [SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) Hidden $1.96 3.01 gems $0.24 0.37 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 19:19 UTC [G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.96 3.01 gems $0.29 0.45 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 19:19 UTC [M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.96 3.01 gems $14.98 23.05 gems 7.66x 2026-11-11 19:19 UTC [SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) Hidden $1.96 3.01 gems $0.24 0.37 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 19:19 UTC [FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-factory-new) [gerry](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/gerry) $1.96 3.01 gems $5.45 8.38 gems 2.78x 2026-11-11 19:19 UTC [MP5-SD | Liquidation (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-liquidation-factory-new) Hidden $1.96 3.01 gems $0.23 0.36 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 19:05 UTC [SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) Hidden $1.96 3.01 gems $0.24 0.37 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 19:05 UTC [MP5-SD | Liquidation (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-liquidation-factory-new) Hidden $1.96 3.01 gems $0.23 0.36 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 19:05 UTC [SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) Hidden $1.96 3.01 gems $0.24 0.37 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 19:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1.96 | 89.97% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.0% classified 5.0% Legendary 10.0% violet 30.0% Rare 25.0% milspec 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt