--- title: "Jolly Jackpot Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Jolly Jackpot Case ($194.55) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 104.85% over 38 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jolly-jackpot-case rendered: 2026-11-11T18:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Jolly Jackpot Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jolly-jackpot-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Jolly Jackpot Case A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jolly-jackpot-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jolly-jackpot-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jolly-jackpot-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jolly-jackpot-case?window=all) Price · $194.55 · 299 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $175.09 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 104.85% · 38 openings, odds method Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 10 openings · below min 7 days · 32 openings · below min 30 days · 38 openings · below min since tracking started · 38 openings · below min 31.0% 114.3% 197.5% **Small sample.** 38 openings and 5.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jolly-jackpot-case?window=24h) | 10 | 114.30% ±82.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jolly-jackpot-case?window=7d) | 32 | 115.13% ±46.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jolly-jackpot-case) | 38 | 104.85% ±42.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/jolly-jackpot-case?window=all) | 38 | 104.85% ±42.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1,223 1,882 gems | 34.9% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.58× | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $329 506 gems | 18.8% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× | | [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-factory-new) | 10.0% | $260 400 gems | 14.8% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.05× | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 10.0% | $164 253 gems | 9.4% | 1 | 3.8 | 0.26× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 19.0% | $98.41 151 gems | 10.7% | 13 | 7.2 | 1.80× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 19.0% | $58.21 89.55 gems | 6.3% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.83× | | [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) | 27.0% | $32.81 50.48 gems | 5.1% | 8 | 10.3 | 0.78× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $195 299 gems $1,223 1,882 gems 6.29x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [Dartt](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Dartt) $195 299 gems $1,223 1,882 gems 6.29x 2026-11-05 06:16 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $195 299 gems $1,223 1,882 gems 6.29x 2026-11-05 05:55 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=jolly-jackpot-case) [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) Hidden $195 299 gems $58.21 89.55 gems 0.30x 2026-11-11 18:01 UTC [MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) Hidden $195 299 gems $32.81 50.48 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:01 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) Hidden $195 299 gems $98.41 151 gems 0.51x 2026-11-11 18:01 UTC [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) Hidden $195 299 gems $58.21 89.55 gems 0.30x 2026-11-11 18:01 UTC [MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) Hidden $195 299 gems $32.81 50.48 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) Hidden $195 299 gems $32.81 50.48 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $195 299 gems $1,223 1,882 gems 6.29x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [P90 | Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-factory-new) Hidden $195 299 gems $260 400 gems 1.34x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) Hidden $195 299 gems $98.41 151 gems 0.51x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [AUG | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-minimal-wear) [rami](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/rami) $195 299 gems $329 506 gems 1.69x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $195 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 70.0% mil spec 10.0% restricted 10.0% classified 10.0% best hit $1,223 (6.29x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt