--- title: "Junkyard case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Junkyard ($9.07) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.95% from 12 items with odds, observed 98.69% over 4,182 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/junkyard rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Junkyard](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/junkyard) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Junkyard A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/junkyard?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/junkyard?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/junkyard) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/junkyard?window=all) Price · $9.07 · 13.95 gems Advertised RTP · 89.95% · EV $8.16 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.69% · 4,182 openings, odds method Variance · 20.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 117.45% ±45.42 389 openings 7 days · 94.48% ±14.93 3,601 openings 30 days · 98.69% ±13.85 4,182 openings since tracking started · 98.69% ±13.85 4,182 openings 71.5% 117.5% 163.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/junkyard?window=24h) | 389 | 117.45% ±45.4 | +1.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/junkyard?window=7d) | 3,601 | 94.48% ±14.9 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/junkyard) | 4,182 | 98.69% ±13.9 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/junkyard?window=all) | 4,182 | 98.69% ±13.9 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,237 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $403 619 gems | 49.4% | 49 | 42.4 | 1.16× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $55.51 85.4 gems | 20.4% | 134 | 127.1 | 1.05× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $44.82 68.96 gems | 16.5% | 136 | 127.1 | 1.07× | | [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $14.14 21.76 gems | 8.7% | 205 | 211.9 | 0.97× | | [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $1.85 2.84 gems | 2.3% | 411 | 423.7 | 0.97× | | [AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.84 1.29 gems | 1.0% | 475 | 423.7 | 1.12× | | [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.68 1.05 gems | 0.8% | 422 | 423.7 | 1.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.29 0.44 gems | 0.4% | 424 | 423.7 | 1.00× | | [XM1014 \| Solitude (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $0.23 0.36 gems | 0.3% | 419 | 423.7 | 0.99× | | [SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.10 0.16 gems | 0.1% | 401 | 423.7 | 0.95× | | [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) | 13.0% | $0.06 0.09 gems | 0.1% | 577 | 550.8 | 1.05× | | [M4A1-S \| Wash me plz (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $0.04 0.06 gems | 0.1% | 584 | 635.5 | 0.92× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=junkyard) [AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) Hidden $9.07 13.95 gems $14.14 21.76 gems 1.56x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) Hidden $9.07 13.95 gems $0.68 1.05 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [XM1014 | Solitude (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude-battle-scarred) Hidden $9.07 13.95 gems $0.23 0.36 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-battle-scarred) Hidden $9.07 13.95 gems $0.04 0.06 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-battle-scarred) Hidden $9.07 13.95 gems $0.04 0.06 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) [Albino](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Albino) $9.07 13.95 gems $0.68 1.05 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [XM1014 | Solitude (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude-battle-scarred) Hidden $9.07 13.95 gems $0.23 0.36 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-field-tested) Hidden $9.07 13.95 gems $0.29 0.44 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) Hidden $9.07 13.95 gems $0.06 0.09 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-factory-new) Hidden $9.07 13.95 gems $0.10 0.16 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $9.07 | 89.95% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 7.0% classified 5.0% #8847ff 20.0% Classified 10.0% Rare 10.0% restricted 10.0% #4b69ff 10.0% mil spec 13.0% industrial 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.95 on average: an expected loss of $10.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt