--- title: "Kawaii Killer case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Kawaii Killer ($81.16) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 11 items with odds, observed 102.76% over 1,967 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kawaii-killer rendered: 2026-11-11T20:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Kawaii Killer](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kawaii-killer) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Kawaii Killer A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kawaii-killer?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kawaii-killer?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kawaii-killer) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kawaii-killer?window=all) Price · $81.16 · 125 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $73.04 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 102.76% · 1,967 openings, odds method Variance · 16.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 94.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 217 openings · below min 7 days · 101.93% ±20.33 1,551 openings 30 days · 102.76% ±18.06 1,967 openings since tracking started · 102.76% ±18.06 1,967 openings 39.5% 94.5% 149.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kawaii-killer?window=24h) | 217 | 94.38% ±54.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kawaii-killer?window=7d) | 1,551 | 101.93% ±20.3 | +1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kawaii-killer) | 1,967 | 102.76% ±18.1 | +1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kawaii-killer?window=all) | 1,967 | 102.76% ±18.1 | +1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,047 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $2,248 3,458 gems | 30.8% | 24 | 20.5 | 1.17× | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2,140 3,292 gems | 29.3% | 26 | 20.5 | 1.27× | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $1,292 1,988 gems | 17.7% | 21 | 20.5 | 1.03× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $265 407 gems | 10.9% | 60 | 61.4 | 0.98× | | [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $34.13 52.5 gems | 2.3% | 110 | 102.4 | 1.07× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $29.68 45.66 gems | 2.0% | 92 | 102.4 | 0.90× | | [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $21.93 33.74 gems | 1.8% | 110 | 122.8 | 0.90× | | [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 10.5% | $10.98 16.89 gems | 1.6% | 239 | 214.9 | 1.11× | | [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-factory-new) | 12.5% | $10.11 15.56 gems | 1.7% | 286 | 255.9 | 1.12× | | [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-field-tested) | 25.0% | $3.59 5.53 gems | 1.2% | 478 | 511.8 | 0.93× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-sakkaku-factory-new) | 30.0% | $1.61 2.47 gems | 0.7% | 601 | 614.1 | 0.98× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $81.16 125 gems $2,248 3,458 gems 27.70x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $81.16 125 gems $2,248 3,458 gems 27.70x 2026-11-10 14:48 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $81.16 125 gems $2,248 3,458 gems 27.70x 2026-11-10 14:30 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $81.16 125 gems $2,248 3,458 gems 27.70x 2026-11-10 14:18 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $81.16 125 gems $2,248 3,458 gems 27.70x 2026-11-10 14:13 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $81.16 125 gems $2,248 3,458 gems 27.70x 2026-11-10 11:01 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [Kotix](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Kotix) $81.16 125 gems $2,248 3,458 gems 27.70x 2026-11-08 00:55 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $81.16 125 gems $2,248 3,458 gems 27.70x 2026-11-07 23:15 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $81.16 125 gems $2,248 3,458 gems 27.70x 2026-11-07 02:50 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $81.16 125 gems $2,248 3,458 gems 27.70x 2026-11-07 01:39 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=kawaii-killer) [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-sakkaku-factory-new) Hidden $81.16 125 gems $1.61 2.47 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-sakkaku-factory-new) Hidden $81.16 125 gems $1.61 2.47 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC [MAC-10 | Toybox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-factory-new) Hidden $81.16 125 gems $10.11 15.56 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-sakkaku-factory-new) Hidden $81.16 125 gems $1.61 2.47 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) Hidden $81.16 125 gems $21.93 33.74 gems 0.27x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC [M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) [MpiXelss](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/MpiXelss) $81.16 125 gems $29.68 45.66 gems 0.37x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC [M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $81.16 125 gems $10.98 16.89 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 18:36 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-sakkaku-factory-new) Hidden $81.16 125 gems $1.61 2.47 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:36 UTC [MP9 | Mount Fuji (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-field-tested) Hidden $81.16 125 gems $3.59 5.53 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:36 UTC [AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) Hidden $81.16 125 gems $34.13 52.5 gems 0.42x 2026-11-11 18:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $81.16 | 90.00% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 1.0% covert 24.5% classified 19.5% violet 25.0% other 30.0% best hit $2,248 (27.70x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt