--- title: "KEKW Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "KEKW Case ($128.69) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 6 items with odds, observed 97.81% over 189 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kekw-case rendered: 2026-11-11T21:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [KEKW Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kekw-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · KEKW Case A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kekw-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kekw-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kekw-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kekw-case?window=all) Price · $128.69 · 198 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $115.81 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.81% · 189 openings, odds method Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 10 openings · below min 7 days · 108.64% ±26.38 161 openings 30 days · 97.81% ±24.34 189 openings since tracking started · 97.81% ±24.34 189 openings -0.5% 67.5% 135.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kekw-case?window=24h) | 10 | 3.10% ±105.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kekw-case?window=7d) | 161 | 108.64% ±26.4 | +1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kekw-case) | 189 | 97.81% ±24.3 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kekw-case?window=all) | 189 | 97.81% ±24.3 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 189 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) | 10.0% | $675 1,039 gems | 58.3% | 24 | 18.9 | 1.27× | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) | 10.0% | $395 607 gems | 34.1% | 14 | 18.9 | 0.74× | | [M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $97.29 150 gems | 4.2% | 14 | 9.4 | 1.48× | | [StatTrak™ Negev \| Power Loader (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-power-loader-factory-new) | 25.0% | $12.43 19.12 gems | 2.7% | 44 | 47.2 | 0.93× | | [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Ziggy (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-ziggy-factory-new) | 25.0% | $2.51 3.86 gems | 0.5% | 41 | 47.2 | 0.87× | | [Five-SeveN \| Nightshade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nightshade-factory-new) | 25.0% | $0.81 1.25 gems | 0.2% | 52 | 47.3 | 1.10× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $129 198 gems $675 1,039 gems 5.25x 2026-11-10 15:14 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $129 198 gems $675 1,039 gems 5.25x 2026-11-10 15:14 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) [Surgest](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Surgest) $129 198 gems $675 1,039 gems 5.25x 2026-11-10 15:12 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) [Surgest](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Surgest) $129 198 gems $675 1,039 gems 5.25x 2026-11-10 15:09 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $129 198 gems $675 1,039 gems 5.25x 2026-11-09 22:07 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) [efe](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/efe) $129 198 gems $675 1,039 gems 5.25x 2026-11-09 22:02 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $129 198 gems $675 1,039 gems 5.25x 2026-11-09 22:02 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $129 198 gems $675 1,039 gems 5.25x 2026-11-09 22:02 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $129 198 gems $675 1,039 gems 5.25x 2026-11-09 14:33 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $129 198 gems $675 1,039 gems 5.25x 2026-11-09 02:22 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=kekw-case) [StatTrak™ XM1014 | Ziggy (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-ziggy-factory-new) Hidden $129 198 gems $2.51 3.86 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC [StatTrak™ XM1014 | Ziggy (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-ziggy-factory-new) Hidden $129 198 gems $2.51 3.86 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC [Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nightshade-factory-new) Hidden $129 198 gems $0.81 1.25 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC [StatTrak™ Negev | Power Loader (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-power-loader-factory-new) Hidden $129 198 gems $12.43 19.12 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC [StatTrak™ Negev | Power Loader (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-power-loader-factory-new) Hidden $129 198 gems $12.43 19.12 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC [Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nightshade-factory-new) [CodeWILDCS 2K LB](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/CodeWILDCS%202K%20LB) $129 198 gems $0.81 1.25 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC [StatTrak™ XM1014 | Ziggy (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-ziggy-factory-new) Hidden $129 198 gems $2.51 3.86 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 05:51 UTC [Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nightshade-factory-new) Hidden $129 198 gems $0.81 1.25 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 05:51 UTC [StatTrak™ XM1014 | Ziggy (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-ziggy-factory-new) Hidden $129 198 gems $2.51 3.86 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 05:51 UTC [StatTrak™ XM1014 | Ziggy (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-ziggy-factory-new) [Beljit](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Beljit) $129 198 gems $2.51 3.86 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 05:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $129 | 89.99% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 10.0% covert 15.0% restricted 25.0% Mythical 25.0% mil spec 25.0% best hit $675 (5.25x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt