--- title: "Kil-A-What case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Kil-A-What ($23.68) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 11 items with odds, observed 65.96% over 644 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kil-a-what rendered: 2026-11-11T20:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Kil-A-What](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kil-a-what) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Kil-A-What A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kil-a-what?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kil-a-what?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kil-a-what) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kil-a-what?window=all) Price · $23.68 · 36.43 gems Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $21.31 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 65.96% · 644 openings, odds method Variance · 11.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 39 openings · below min 7 days · 69.17% ±28.71 538 openings 30 days · 65.96% ±26.24 644 openings since tracking started · 65.96% ±26.24 644 openings -0.5% 75.0% 150.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kil-a-what?window=24h) | 39 | 43.02% ±106.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kil-a-what?window=7d) | 538 | 69.17% ±28.7 | −1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kil-a-what) | 644 | 65.96% ±26.2 | −1.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kil-a-what?window=all) | 644 | 65.96% ±26.2 | −1.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 650 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,211 1,863 gems | 14.2% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $506 779 gems | 11.9% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.31× | | [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $451 694 gems | 15.9% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.03× | | [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $70.82 109 gems | 11.6% | 19 | 22.7 | 0.84× | | [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $53.44 82.22 gems | 10.0% | 21 | 26.0 | 0.81× | | [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $47.45 73 gems | 13.4% | 33 | 39.0 | 0.85× | | [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-factory-new) | 19.0% | $7.95 12.23 gems | 7.1% | 132 | 123.5 | 1.07× | | [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) | 19.0% | $7.15 11 gems | 6.4% | 142 | 123.5 | 1.15× | | [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-factory-new) | 19.0% | $6.97 10.73 gems | 6.2% | 122 | 123.5 | 0.99× | | [MAC-10 \| Light Box (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-factory-new) | 14.0% | $4.15 6.38 gems | 2.7% | 81 | 91.0 | 0.89× | | [UMP-45 \| Motorized (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-factory-new) | 14.0% | $0.92 1.42 gems | 0.6% | 94 | 91.0 | 1.03× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-factory-new) [Sickez](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Sickez) $23.68 36.43 gems $506 779 gems 21.38x 2026-11-06 22:05 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=kil-a-what) [Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-factory-new) Hidden $23.68 36.43 gems $6.97 10.73 gems 0.29x 2026-11-11 19:57 UTC [Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) Hidden $23.68 36.43 gems $7.15 11 gems 0.30x 2026-11-11 19:57 UTC [Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) Hidden $23.68 36.43 gems $7.15 11 gems 0.30x 2026-11-11 19:57 UTC [Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) Hidden $23.68 36.43 gems $7.15 11 gems 0.30x 2026-11-11 19:57 UTC [Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) Hidden $23.68 36.43 gems $7.15 11 gems 0.30x 2026-11-11 19:57 UTC [Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-factory-new) [elfanta](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/elfanta) $23.68 36.43 gems $6.97 10.73 gems 0.29x 2026-11-11 19:57 UTC [M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-factory-new) Hidden $23.68 36.43 gems $7.95 12.23 gems 0.34x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC [M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-factory-new) Hidden $23.68 36.43 gems $7.95 12.23 gems 0.34x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC [Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) Hidden $23.68 36.43 gems $7.15 11 gems 0.30x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC [Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-factory-new) Hidden $23.68 36.43 gems $6.97 10.73 gems 0.29x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $23.68 | 89.98% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.0% red 0.5% pink 7.5% Classified 6.0% violet 19.0% restricted 38.0% Rare 28.0% best hit $506 (21.38x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt