--- title: "Kill Contract case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Kill Contract ($45.64) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 75.40% over 903 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kill-contract rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Kill Contract](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kill-contract) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Kill Contract A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kill-contract?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kill-contract?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kill-contract) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kill-contract?window=all) Price · $45.64 · 70.21 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $41.07 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 75.40% · 903 openings, odds method Variance · 16.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 132 openings · below min 7 days · 77.73% ±31.43 636 openings 30 days · 75.40% ±26.38 903 openings since tracking started · 75.40% ±26.38 903 openings -0.5% 67.5% 135.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kill-contract?window=24h) | 132 | 65.88% ±69.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kill-contract?window=7d) | 636 | 77.73% ±31.4 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kill-contract) | 903 | 75.40% ±26.4 | −1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/kill-contract?window=all) | 903 | 75.40% ±26.4 | −1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 918 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 500 | $2,989 4,599 gems | 14.6% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.54× | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $1,656 2,548 gems | 12.1% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.73× | | [ESL One Cologne 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Package container · Souvenir](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2014-cobblestone-souvenir-package) | 1 in 200 | $1,071 1,647 gems | 13.0% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.31× | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $320 492 gems | 7.8% | 10 | 9.2 | 1.09× | | [MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $256 394 gems | 6.2% | 11 | 9.2 | 1.20× | | [SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $198 304 gems | 14.4% | 25 | 27.5 | 0.91× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-battle-scarred-2) | 1 in 33 | $142 218 gems | 10.3% | 20 | 27.5 | 0.73× | | [Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $77.39 119 gems | 9.4% | 46 | 45.9 | 1.00× | | [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $53.77 82.72 gems | 6.5% | 38 | 45.9 | 0.83× | | [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-field-tested) | 10.0% | $13.57 20.88 gems | 3.3% | 94 | 91.8 | 1.02× | | [PP-Bizon \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rust-coat-well-worn) | 11.0% | $6.40 9.84 gems | 1.7% | 128 | 101.0 | 1.27× | | [Sticker \| The Ninja sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-the-ninja) | 60.0% | $0.36 0.56 gems | 0.5% | 537 | 550.8 | 0.97× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) [HAKAO](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/HAKAO) $45.64 70.21 gems $2,989 4,599 gems 65.50x 2026-11-02 23:08 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $45.64 70.21 gems $1,656 2,548 gems 36.29x 2026-11-09 22:33 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [xCrowny](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/xCrowny) $45.64 70.21 gems $1,656 2,548 gems 36.29x 2026-11-03 22:01 UTC [ESL One Cologne 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Package container · Souvenir](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2014-cobblestone-souvenir-package) Hidden $45.64 70.21 gems $1,071 1,647 gems 23.46x 2026-11-10 23:24 UTC [ESL One Cologne 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Package container · Souvenir](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2014-cobblestone-souvenir-package) Hidden $45.64 70.21 gems $1,071 1,647 gems 23.46x 2026-11-10 00:46 UTC [ESL One Cologne 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Package container · Souvenir](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2014-cobblestone-souvenir-package) Hidden $45.64 70.21 gems $1,071 1,647 gems 23.46x 2026-11-09 22:36 UTC [ESL One Cologne 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Package container · Souvenir](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2014-cobblestone-souvenir-package) Hidden $45.64 70.21 gems $1,071 1,647 gems 23.46x 2026-11-09 22:35 UTC [ESL One Cologne 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Package container · Souvenir](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2014-cobblestone-souvenir-package) [jmL](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/jmL) $45.64 70.21 gems $1,071 1,647 gems 23.46x 2026-11-04 13:43 UTC [ESL One Cologne 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Package container · Souvenir](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2014-cobblestone-souvenir-package) Hidden $45.64 70.21 gems $1,071 1,647 gems 23.46x 2026-11-03 21:45 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=kill-contract) [Sticker | The Ninja sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-the-ninja) Hidden $45.64 70.21 gems $0.36 0.56 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:54 UTC [PP-Bizon | Rust Coat (Well-Worn) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rust-coat-well-worn) Hidden $45.64 70.21 gems $6.40 9.84 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 09:54 UTC [Sticker | The Ninja sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-the-ninja) Hidden $45.64 70.21 gems $0.36 0.56 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:54 UTC [Galil AR | Aqua Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-factory-new) Hidden $45.64 70.21 gems $77.39 119 gems 1.70x 2026-11-11 09:54 UTC [PP-Bizon | Rust Coat (Well-Worn) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rust-coat-well-worn) Hidden $45.64 70.21 gems $6.40 9.84 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 09:54 UTC [Sticker | The Ninja sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-the-ninja) [duccster](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/duccster) $45.64 70.21 gems $0.36 0.56 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:54 UTC [Sticker | The Ninja sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-the-ninja) Hidden $45.64 70.21 gems $0.36 0.56 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC [Sticker | The Ninja sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-the-ninja) Hidden $45.64 70.21 gems $0.36 0.56 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC [Sticker | The Ninja sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-the-ninja) Hidden $45.64 70.21 gems $0.36 0.56 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC [FAMAS | Prime Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-factory-new) Hidden $45.64 70.21 gems $53.77 82.72 gems 1.18x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $45.64 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.2% covert 1.3% Souvenir 0.5% #d32ee6 1.0% restricted 6.0% mil spec 5.0% violet 5.0% Classified 10.0% Rare 71.0% best hit $2,989 (65.50x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt