--- title: "King of the Castle case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "King of the Castle ($112.85) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 97.85% over 583 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/king-of-the-castle rendered: 2026-11-13T02:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [King of the Castle](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/king-of-the-castle) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · King of the Castle A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/king-of-the-castle?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/king-of-the-castle?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/king-of-the-castle) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/king-of-the-castle?window=all) Price · $112.85 · 174 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $101.56 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.85% · 583 openings, odds method Variance · 7.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 18 openings · below min 7 days · 95.55% ±27.32 395 openings 30 days · 97.85% ±22.49 583 openings since tracking started · 97.85% ±22.49 583 openings 8.5% 137.0% 265.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/king-of-the-castle?window=24h) | 18 | 136.92% ±128.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/king-of-the-castle?window=7d) | 395 | 95.55% ±27.3 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/king-of-the-castle) | 583 | 97.85% ±22.5 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/king-of-the-castle?window=all) | 583 | 97.85% ±22.5 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 595 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,821 2,801 gems | 35.9% | 15 | 11.9 | 1.26× | | [AWP \| The Prince (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $1,190 1,830 gems | 23.4% | 9 | 11.9 | 0.76× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $599 922 gems | 17.7% | 20 | 17.8 | 1.12× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Chalice (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-chalice-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $265 408 gems | 7.8% | 19 | 17.8 | 1.06× | | [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) | 15.0% | $48.52 74.64 gems | 7.2% | 98 | 89.2 | 1.10× | | [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 15.0% | $30.54 46.99 gems | 4.5% | 101 | 89.2 | 1.13× | | [MAG-7 \| Chainmail (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-chainmail-factory-new) | 20.0% | $14.37 22.1 gems | 2.8% | 103 | 119.0 | 0.87× | | [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) | 20.0% | $3.07 4.72 gems | 0.6% | 112 | 119.0 | 0.94× | | [Sticker \| All Hail the King (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-all-hail-the-king-foil) | 20.0% | $0.36 0.56 gems | 0.1% | 118 | 119.0 | 0.99× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 13 Nov, 02:19 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $1,821 2,801 gems 16.14x 2026-11-12 08:20 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $1,821 2,801 gems 16.14x 2026-11-11 17:00 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $1,821 2,801 gems 16.14x 2026-11-10 20:15 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $1,821 2,801 gems 16.14x 2026-11-09 22:47 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $1,821 2,801 gems 16.14x 2026-11-09 22:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $1,821 2,801 gems 16.14x 2026-11-09 22:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $1,821 2,801 gems 16.14x 2026-11-09 14:16 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $1,821 2,801 gems 16.14x 2026-11-09 02:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $1,821 2,801 gems 16.14x 2026-11-08 13:15 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $1,821 2,801 gems 16.14x 2026-11-07 21:32 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=king-of-the-castle) [M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $48.52 74.64 gems 0.43x 2026-11-13 01:20 UTC [Sticker | All Hail the King (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-all-hail-the-king-foil) Hidden $113 174 gems $0.36 0.56 gems 0.00x 2026-11-13 01:20 UTC [MAG-7 | Chainmail (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-chainmail-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $14.37 22.1 gems 0.13x 2026-11-13 01:20 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $599 922 gems 5.31x 2026-11-13 01:20 UTC [M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $48.52 74.64 gems 0.43x 2026-11-13 01:20 UTC [Sticker | All Hail the King (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-all-hail-the-king-foil) [Energetic Lion](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Energetic%20Lion) $113 174 gems $0.36 0.56 gems 0.00x 2026-11-13 01:20 UTC [M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $48.52 74.64 gems 0.43x 2026-11-12 08:36 UTC [USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $30.54 46.99 gems 0.27x 2026-11-12 08:36 UTC [M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $48.52 74.64 gems 0.43x 2026-11-12 08:36 UTC [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $3.07 4.72 gems 0.03x 2026-11-12 08:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $113 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 2.0% covert 20.0% restricted 23.0% industrial 35.0% #d32ce6 20.0% best hit $1,821 (16.14x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt