--- title: "Knife 50-50 case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Knife 50-50 ($29.29) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 92.44% over 876 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knife-50-50 rendered: 2026-11-12T01:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Knife 50-50](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knife-50-50) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Knife 50-50 A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knife-50-50?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knife-50-50?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knife-50-50) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knife-50-50?window=all) Price · $29.29 · 45.06 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $26.36 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.44% · 876 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 30.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 96.27% ±14.62 132 openings 7 days · 90.95% ±5.91 807 openings 30 days · 92.44% ±5.67 876 openings since tracking started · 92.44% ±5.67 876 openings 81.0% 96.3% 111.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knife-50-50?window=24h) | 132 | 96.27% ±14.6 | +0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knife-50-50?window=7d) | 807 | 90.95% ±5.91 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knife-50-50) | 876 | 92.44% ±5.67 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knife-50-50?window=all) | 876 | 92.44% ±5.67 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 954 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 10.0% | $68.02 105 gems | 25.8% | 100 | 95.4 | 1.05× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $50.13 77.13 gems | 19.0% | 99 | 95.4 | 1.04× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $47.18 72.58 gems | 17.9% | 88 | 95.4 | 0.92× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $43.80 67.38 gems | 33.2% | 214 | 190.8 | 1.12× | | [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-factory-new) | 25.0% | $4.20 6.46 gems | 4.0% | 226 | 238.5 | 0.95× | | [P90 \| Sand Spray (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-factory-new) | 25.0% | $0.07 0.11 gems | 0.1% | 227 | 238.5 | 0.95× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=knife-50-50) [★ Gut Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $29.29 45.06 gems $47.18 72.58 gems 1.61x 2026-11-11 21:21 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.29 45.06 gems $43.80 67.38 gems 1.50x 2026-11-11 21:21 UTC [Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-factory-new) Hidden $29.29 45.06 gems $4.20 6.46 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-factory-new) Hidden $29.29 45.06 gems $4.20 6.46 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) [SVJ](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/SVJ) $29.29 45.06 gems $43.80 67.38 gems 1.50x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-factory-new) Hidden $29.29 45.06 gems $0.07 0.11 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.29 45.06 gems $50.13 77.13 gems 1.71x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-factory-new) [SVJ](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/SVJ) $29.29 45.06 gems $4.20 6.46 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-factory-new) Hidden $29.29 45.06 gems $0.07 0.11 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:12 UTC [Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-factory-new) Hidden $29.29 45.06 gems $4.20 6.46 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 21:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $29.29 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 50.0% classified 25.0% Common 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt