--- title: "Knife Yolo case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Knife Yolo ($0.21) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.88% from 10 items with odds, observed 104.73% over 71.5K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knife-yolo rendered: 2026-11-11T14:13Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Knife Yolo](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knife-yolo) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Knife Yolo A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knife-yolo?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knife-yolo?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knife-yolo) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knife-yolo?window=all) Price · $0.21 · 0.33 gems Advertised RTP · 89.88% · EV $0.19 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 104.73% · 71.5K openings, odds method Variance · 720.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 2,500 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 106.60% ±35.25 22.3K openings 7 days · 105.07% ±21.25 61.3K openings 30 days · 104.73% ±19.67 71.5K openings since tracking started · 104.73% ±19.67 71.5K openings 70.5% 106.5% 142.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knife-yolo?window=24h) | 22.3K | 106.60% ±35.2 | +0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knife-yolo?window=7d) | 61.3K | 105.07% ±21.3 | +1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knife-yolo) | 71.5K | 104.73% ±19.7 | +1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knife-yolo?window=all) | 71.5K | 104.73% ±19.7 | +1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 72.5K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $327 502 gems | 16.9% | 6 | 7.3 | 0.83× | | [★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $279 429 gems | 14.5% | 14 | 7.3 | 1.93× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $237 364 gems | 12.3% | 7 | 7.3 | 0.97× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $165 254 gems | 8.6% | 12 | 7.3 | 1.65× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $140 215 gems | 7.2% | 9 | 7.3 | 1.24× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $92.46 142 gems | 4.8% | 7 | 7.3 | 0.97× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-boreal-forest-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $77.46 119 gems | 4.0% | 7 | 7.3 | 0.97× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $55.58 85.51 gems | 14.4% | 38 | 36.3 | 1.05× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $53.55 82.39 gems | 13.9% | 35 | 36.3 | 0.97× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) | 99.8% | \<$0.01 0.01 gems | 3.4% | 72,378 | 72389.7 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.21 0.33 gems $327 502 gems 1,522x 2026-11-11 01:06 UTC [★ Karambit | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.21 0.33 gems $327 502 gems 1,522x 2026-11-10 18:21 UTC [★ Karambit | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.21 0.33 gems $327 502 gems 1,522x 2026-11-10 13:48 UTC [★ Karambit | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-minimal-wear) [4\*\*\*™](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/4***%E2%84%A2-597890) $0.21 0.33 gems $327 502 gems 1,522x 2026-11-06 23:53 UTC [★ Karambit | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-minimal-wear) [4\*\*\*™](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/4***%E2%84%A2-597890) $0.21 0.33 gems $327 502 gems 1,522x 2026-11-06 23:00 UTC [★ Karambit | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.21 0.33 gems $327 502 gems 1,522x 2026-11-06 07:26 UTC [★ Karambit | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.21 0.33 gems $327 502 gems 1,522x 2026-11-05 09:08 UTC [★ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) [SanZuk](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/SanZuk) $0.21 0.33 gems $279 429 gems 1,301x 2026-11-11 01:33 UTC [★ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.21 0.33 gems $279 429 gems 1,301x 2026-11-10 19:48 UTC [★ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.21 0.33 gems $279 429 gems 1,301x 2026-11-10 18:50 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=knife-yolo) [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.21 0.33 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.21 0.33 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.21 0.33 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.21 0.33 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.21 0.33 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) [Schrex](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Schrex) $0.21 0.33 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.21 0.33 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.21 0.33 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.21 0.33 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.21 0.33 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $0.21 | 89.88% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% covert knife 0.1% Covert 0.0% consumer 99.8% best hit $327 (1,522x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.88 on average: an expected loss of $10.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt