--- title: "Knives Out case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Knives Out ($208.56) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 95.81% over 76 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knives-out rendered: 2026-11-11T13:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Knives Out](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knives-out) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Knives Out A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knives-out?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knives-out?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knives-out) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knives-out?window=all) Price · $208.56 · 321 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $187.70 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.81% · 76 openings, odds method Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 52 openings · below min 30 days · 76 openings · below min since tracking started · 76 openings · below min 14.0% 79.0% 144.0% **Small sample.** 76 openings and 11.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knives-out?window=24h) | 12 | 79.06% ±64.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knives-out?window=7d) | 52 | 103.74% ±30.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knives-out) | 76 | 95.81% ±25.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/knives-out?window=all) | 76 | 95.81% ±25.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 76 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1,034 1,590 gems | 27.5% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× | | [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $568 874 gems | 15.1% | 6 | 3.8 | 1.58× | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $412 634 gems | 11.0% | 6 | 3.8 | 1.58× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $275 423 gems | 7.3% | 6 | 3.8 | 1.58× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $259 398 gems | 6.9% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $197 303 gems | 5.2% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.05× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $143 220 gems | 3.8% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 25.0% | $83.09 128 gems | 11.1% | 14 | 19.0 | 0.74× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-black-laminate-well-worn) | 20.0% | $64.38 99.05 gems | 6.9% | 14 | 15.2 | 0.92× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-factory-new) | 20.0% | $48.24 74.22 gems | 5.1% | 18 | 15.2 | 1.18× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $209 321 gems $1,034 1,590 gems 4.96x 2026-11-09 12:09 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $209 321 gems $1,034 1,590 gems 4.96x 2026-11-07 23:04 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $209 321 gems $1,034 1,590 gems 4.96x 2026-11-04 04:31 UTC [★ Karambit | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $209 321 gems $568 874 gems 2.72x 2026-11-07 23:09 UTC [★ Karambit | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $209 321 gems $568 874 gems 2.72x 2026-11-07 23:03 UTC [★ Karambit | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $209 321 gems $568 874 gems 2.72x 2026-11-07 20:21 UTC [★ Karambit | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $209 321 gems $568 874 gems 2.72x 2026-11-07 19:45 UTC [★ Karambit | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $209 321 gems $568 874 gems 2.72x 2026-11-04 04:29 UTC [★ Karambit | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $209 321 gems $568 874 gems 2.72x 2026-11-04 04:27 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=knives-out) [★ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $209 321 gems $197 303 gems 0.94x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $209 321 gems $83.09 128 gems 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $209 321 gems $48.24 74.22 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $209 321 gems $48.24 74.22 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $209 321 gems $259 398 gems 1.24x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-factory-new) [clepto holding](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/clepto%20holding) $209 321 gems $48.24 74.22 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $209 321 gems $83.09 128 gems 0.40x 2026-11-10 14:13 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $209 321 gems $48.24 74.22 gems 0.23x 2026-11-10 14:13 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $209 321 gems $412 634 gems 1.98x 2026-11-10 14:13 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $209 321 gems $412 634 gems 1.98x 2026-11-10 14:13 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $209 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 75.0% gold 5.0% covert knife 20.0% best hit $1,034 (4.96x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt