--- title: "Lag Spike case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Lag Spike ($3.52) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.95% from 8 items with odds, observed 82.40% over 6,664 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lag-spike rendered: 2026-11-11T17:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Lag Spike](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lag-spike) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Lag Spike A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lag-spike?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lag-spike?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lag-spike) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lag-spike?window=all) Price · $3.52 · 5.42 gems Advertised RTP · 89.95% · EV $3.17 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.40% · 6,664 openings, odds method Variance · 5.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 83.12% ±15.56 818 openings 7 days · 81.88% ±5.85 5,781 openings 30 days · 82.40% ±5.45 6,664 openings since tracking started · 82.40% ±5.45 6,664 openings 67.0% 83.3% 99.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.95% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (76.95% – 87.86%, 6,664 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lag-spike?window=24h) | 818 | 83.12% ±15.6 | −0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lag-spike?window=7d) | 5,781 | 81.88% ±5.85 | −2.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lag-spike) | 6,664 | 82.40% ±5.45 | −2.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lag-spike?window=all) | 6,664 | 82.40% ±5.45 | −2.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,905 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $50.68 77.97 gems | 40.0% | 142 | 172.6 | 0.82× | | [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $13.29 20.45 gems | 10.5% | 145 | 172.6 | 0.84× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $7.97 12.26 gems | 6.3% | 173 | 172.6 | 1.00× | | [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $5.57 8.57 gems | 4.4% | 170 | 172.6 | 0.98× | | [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-factory-new) | 20.0% | $3.52 5.41 gems | 22.2% | 1,387 | 1381.0 | 1.00× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $1.57 2.42 gems | 9.9% | 1,389 | 1381.0 | 1.01× | | [Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-well-worn) | 20.0% | $0.62 0.95 gems | 3.9% | 1,398 | 1381.0 | 1.01× | | [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.30 0.46 gems | 2.8% | 2,101 | 2071.5 | 1.01× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=lag-spike) [Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-factory-new) Hidden $3.52 5.42 gems $3.52 5.41 gems 1.00x 2026-11-11 17:44 UTC [Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-well-worn) Hidden $3.52 5.42 gems $0.62 0.95 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 17:44 UTC [SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) Hidden $3.52 5.42 gems $0.30 0.46 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 17:44 UTC [Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-well-worn) Hidden $3.52 5.42 gems $0.62 0.95 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 17:44 UTC [Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-factory-new) Hidden $3.52 5.42 gems $3.52 5.41 gems 1.00x 2026-11-11 17:44 UTC [Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-well-worn) [bathroom camera](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/bathroom%20camera) $3.52 5.42 gems $0.62 0.95 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 17:44 UTC [Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-factory-new) Hidden $3.52 5.42 gems $3.52 5.41 gems 1.00x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.52 5.42 gems $1.57 2.42 gems 0.45x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC [SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) Hidden $3.52 5.42 gems $0.30 0.46 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC [Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-factory-new) Hidden $3.52 5.42 gems $3.52 5.41 gems 1.00x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $3.52 | 89.95% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.5% violet 32.5% classified 2.5% #d32ee6 2.5% restricted 40.0% #4b69ff 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.95 on average: an expected loss of $10.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt