--- title: "Last Bullet case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Last Bullet ($18.83) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 97.61% over 929 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/last-bullet rendered: 2026-11-11T13:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Last Bullet](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/last-bullet) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Last Bullet A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 8 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/last-bullet?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/last-bullet?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/last-bullet) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/last-bullet?window=all) Price · $18.83 · 28.97 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $16.95 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.61% · 929 openings, odds method Variance · 7.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 90.72% ±30.34 297 openings 7 days · 97.61% ±17.16 929 openings 30 days · 97.61% ±17.16 929 openings since tracking started · 97.61% ±17.16 929 openings 59.5% 90.5% 121.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/last-bullet?window=24h) | 297 | 90.72% ±30.3 | +0.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/last-bullet?window=7d) | 929 | 97.61% ±17.2 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/last-bullet) | 929 | 97.61% ±17.2 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/last-bullet?window=all) | 929 | 97.61% ±17.2 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 937 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $391 601 gems | 23.1% | 12 | 9.4 | 1.28× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $190 292 gems | 22.4% | 19 | 18.7 | 1.01× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $121 186 gems | 14.3% | 20 | 18.7 | 1.07× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $58.01 89.24 gems | 17.1% | 45 | 46.9 | 0.96× | | [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $42.20 64.93 gems | 12.5% | 46 | 46.9 | 0.98× | | [SSG 08 \| Red Stone (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-red-stone-factory-new) | 10.0% | $9.63 14.81 gems | 5.7% | 102 | 93.7 | 1.09× | | [Glock-18 \| Red Tire (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-red-tire-factory-new) | 10.0% | $7.48 11.5 gems | 4.4% | 101 | 93.7 | 1.08× | | [P250 \| Red Tide (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.45 0.69 gems | 0.4% | 114 | 140.5 | 0.81× | | [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-factory-new) | 25.0% | $0.14 0.22 gems | 0.2% | 237 | 234.3 | 1.01× | | [G3SG1 \| Red Jasper (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-red-jasper-factory-new) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 gems | 0.0% | 241 | 234.3 | 1.03× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=last-bullet) [G3SG1 | Red Jasper (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-red-jasper-factory-new) Hidden $18.83 28.97 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [Glock-18 | Red Tire (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-red-tire-factory-new) Hidden $18.83 28.97 gems $7.48 11.5 gems 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $18.83 28.97 gems $0.14 0.22 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [SSG 08 | Red Stone (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-red-stone-factory-new) Hidden $18.83 28.97 gems $9.63 14.81 gems 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $18.83 28.97 gems $0.14 0.22 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-factory-new) [✪FearZ✪](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%E2%9C%AAFearZ%E2%9C%AA) $18.83 28.97 gems $0.14 0.22 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [G3SG1 | Red Jasper (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-red-jasper-factory-new) Hidden $18.83 28.97 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $18.83 28.97 gems $0.14 0.22 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [SSG 08 | Red Stone (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-red-stone-factory-new) Hidden $18.83 28.97 gems $9.63 14.81 gems 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-factory-new) [✪FearZ✪](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%E2%9C%AAFearZ%E2%9C%AA) $18.83 28.97 gems $0.14 0.22 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:38 UTC | $18.83 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% Ancient 5.0% consumer 35.0% industrial 10.0% Rare 15.0% violet 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt