--- title: "Lava Spill case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lava Spill ($60.79) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 85.73% over 166 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lava-spill rendered: 2026-11-11T17:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Lava Spill](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lava-spill) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Lava Spill A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lava-spill?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lava-spill?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lava-spill) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lava-spill?window=all) Price · $60.79 · 93.52 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $54.71 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.73% · 166 openings, odds method Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 33.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 67.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 3 openings · below min 7 days · 81.09% ±12.48 109 openings 30 days · 85.73% ±10.12 166 openings since tracking started · 85.73% ±10.12 166 openings -0.5% 68.0% 136.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lava-spill?window=24h) | 3 | 60.56% ±75.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lava-spill?window=7d) | 109 | 81.09% ±12.5 | −1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lava-spill) | 166 | 85.73% ±10.1 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lava-spill?window=all) | 166 | 85.73% ±10.1 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 172 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $139 214 gems | 28.0% | 20 | 18.9 | 1.06× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 11.0% | $106 162 gems | 21.2% | 13 | 18.9 | 0.69× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $71.60 110 gems | 14.4% | 20 | 18.9 | 1.06× | | [MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-factory-new) | 12.0% | $49.00 75.38 gems | 10.7% | 22 | 20.6 | 1.07× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 15.0% | $42.24 64.98 gems | 11.6% | 20 | 25.8 | 0.78× | | [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) | 40.0% | $19.21 29.55 gems | 14.0% | 77 | 68.8 | 1.12× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=lava-spill) [MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-factory-new) Hidden $60.79 93.52 gems $49.00 75.38 gems 0.81x 2026-11-10 19:37 UTC [M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $60.79 93.52 gems $19.21 29.55 gems 0.32x 2026-11-10 19:37 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) Hidden $60.79 93.52 gems $42.24 64.98 gems 0.69x 2026-11-10 19:37 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) Hidden $60.79 93.52 gems $42.24 64.98 gems 0.69x 2026-11-10 11:04 UTC [MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-factory-new) Hidden $60.79 93.52 gems $49.00 75.38 gems 0.81x 2026-11-10 11:04 UTC [M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $60.79 93.52 gems $19.21 29.55 gems 0.32x 2026-11-10 11:04 UTC [M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) [Pielenhofer](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Pielenhofer) $60.79 93.52 gems $19.21 29.55 gems 0.32x 2026-11-10 11:04 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) Hidden $60.79 93.52 gems $106 162 gems 1.74x 2026-11-10 11:03 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-minimal-wear) Hidden $60.79 93.52 gems $139 214 gems 2.29x 2026-11-10 11:03 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-minimal-wear) Hidden $60.79 93.52 gems $71.60 110 gems 1.18x 2026-11-10 11:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $60.79 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 11.0% covert 26.0% classified 11.0% restricted 52.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt