--- title: "Least case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Least ($520.68) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 98.06% over 110 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/least rendered: 2026-11-11T14:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Least](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/least) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Least A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/least?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/least?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/least) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/least?window=all) Price · $520.68 · 801 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $468.61 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.06% · 110 openings, odds method Variance · 5.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 86 openings · below min 30 days · 98.06% ±43.71 110 openings since tracking started · 98.06% ±43.71 110 openings 36.0% 89.3% 142.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/least?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/least?window=7d) | 86 | 86.19% ±49.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/least) | 110 | 98.06% ±43.7 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/least?window=all) | 110 | 98.06% ±43.7 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 110 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $7,881 12,124 gems | 16.8% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $5,720 8,800 gems | 12.2% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.73× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $3,006 4,624 gems | 16.0% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.73× | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $2,944 4,530 gems | 15.7% | 5 | 2.7 | 1.82× | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $2,085 3,208 gems | 11.1% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.73× | | [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $1,562 2,403 gems | 8.3% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.36× | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $1,539 2,367 gems | 19.7% | 3 | 6.6 | 0.45× | | [Glock-18 \| Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-battle-scarred) | 82.0% | $0.45 0.69 gems | 0.1% | 93 | 90.2 | 1.03× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $521 801 gems $7,881 12,124 gems 15.14x 2026-11-07 19:42 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) Hidden $521 801 gems $5,720 8,800 gems 10.99x 2026-11-10 02:42 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) Hidden $521 801 gems $5,720 8,800 gems 10.99x 2026-11-07 00:51 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) [Live @ Kick/JaekCreates](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Live%20%40%20Kick%2FJaekCreates) $521 801 gems $5,720 8,800 gems 10.99x 2026-11-04 00:22 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) Hidden $521 801 gems $3,006 4,624 gems 5.77x 2026-11-06 00:29 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) Hidden $521 801 gems $3,006 4,624 gems 5.77x 2026-11-03 08:45 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $521 801 gems $2,944 4,530 gems 5.65x 2026-11-07 00:51 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $521 801 gems $2,944 4,530 gems 5.65x 2026-11-06 00:21 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $521 801 gems $2,944 4,530 gems 5.65x 2026-11-04 00:19 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $521 801 gems $2,944 4,530 gems 5.65x 2026-11-03 22:35 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=least) [Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $521 801 gems $0.45 0.69 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 02:42 UTC [Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $521 801 gems $0.45 0.69 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 02:42 UTC [Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $521 801 gems $0.45 0.69 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 02:42 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) Hidden $521 801 gems $5,720 8,800 gems 10.99x 2026-11-10 02:42 UTC [Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $521 801 gems $0.45 0.69 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 02:42 UTC [Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-battle-scarred) [GdZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/GdZ) $521 801 gems $0.45 0.69 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 02:42 UTC [Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $521 801 gems $0.45 0.69 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 02:37 UTC [Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $521 801 gems $0.45 0.69 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 02:37 UTC [Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $521 801 gems $0.45 0.69 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 02:37 UTC [★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $521 801 gems $1,539 2,367 gems 2.95x 2026-11-10 02:37 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $521 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.5% extraordinary 2.5% contraband 2.5% classified 2.5% epic 6.0% industrial 82.0% best hit $7,881 (15.14x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt