--- title: "Lethality case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Lethality ($31.15) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 76.93% over 1,293 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lethality rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Lethality](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lethality) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Lethality A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lethality?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lethality?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lethality) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lethality?window=all) Price · $31.15 · 47.92 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $28.03 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.93% · 1,293 openings, odds method Variance · 12.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 98.27% ±42.74 265 openings 7 days · 78.95% ±20.68 1,132 openings 30 days · 76.93% ±19.35 1,293 openings since tracking started · 76.93% ±19.35 1,293 openings 55.0% 98.3% 141.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lethality?window=24h) | 265 | 98.27% ±42.7 | +0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lethality?window=7d) | 1,132 | 78.95% ±20.7 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lethality) | 1,293 | 76.93% ±19.3 | −1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lethality?window=all) | 1,293 | 76.93% ±19.3 | −1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,310 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $692 1,065 gems | 49.4% | 21 | 26.2 | 0.80× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $335 515 gems | 23.9% | 22 | 26.2 | 0.84× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $207 319 gems | 14.8% | 26 | 26.2 | 0.99× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $127 195 gems | 9.0% | 21 | 26.2 | 0.80× | | [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $4.16 6.4 gems | 1.0% | 86 | 91.7 | 0.94× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $1.37 2.1 gems | 0.5% | 120 | 131.0 | 0.92× | | [Five-SeveN \| Nightshade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nightshade-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.97 1.49 gems | 0.5% | 213 | 196.5 | 1.08× | | [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.63 0.97 gems | 0.4% | 286 | 262.0 | 1.09× | | [P250 \| Small Game (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-small-game-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.36 0.56 gems | 0.3% | 240 | 262.0 | 0.92× | | [USP-S \| Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.19 0.29 gems | 0.1% | 275 | 262.0 | 1.05× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $31.15 47.92 gems $692 1,065 gems 22.23x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $31.15 47.92 gems $692 1,065 gems 22.23x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [mavrek](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/mavrek) $31.15 47.92 gems $692 1,065 gems 22.23x 2026-11-11 04:11 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $31.15 47.92 gems $692 1,065 gems 22.23x 2026-11-10 19:40 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $31.15 47.92 gems $692 1,065 gems 22.23x 2026-11-10 18:41 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $31.15 47.92 gems $692 1,065 gems 22.23x 2026-11-10 17:56 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $31.15 47.92 gems $692 1,065 gems 22.23x 2026-11-10 17:48 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $31.15 47.92 gems $692 1,065 gems 22.23x 2026-11-08 19:42 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [VelvetTheDog](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/VelvetTheDog) $31.15 47.92 gems $692 1,065 gems 22.23x 2026-11-08 16:02 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $31.15 47.92 gems $692 1,065 gems 22.23x 2026-11-07 22:27 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=lethality) [Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nightshade-field-tested) Hidden $31.15 47.92 gems $0.97 1.49 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC [P250 | Small Game (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-small-game-field-tested) Hidden $31.15 47.92 gems $0.36 0.56 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC [Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nightshade-field-tested) Hidden $31.15 47.92 gems $0.97 1.49 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $31.15 47.92 gems $692 1,065 gems 22.23x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-army-sheen-minimal-wear) Hidden $31.15 47.92 gems $1.37 2.1 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC [P250 | Small Game (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-small-game-field-tested) [( ͡° ᴥ ͡° )](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%28%20%CD%A1%C2%B0%20%E1%B4%A5%20%CD%A1%C2%B0%20%29) $31.15 47.92 gems $0.36 0.56 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC [USP-S | Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) Hidden $31.15 47.92 gems $0.19 0.29 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nightshade-field-tested) Hidden $31.15 47.92 gems $0.97 1.49 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nightshade-field-tested) [( ͡° ᴥ ͡° )](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%28%20%CD%A1%C2%B0%20%E1%B4%A5%20%CD%A1%C2%B0%20%29) $31.15 47.92 gems $0.97 1.49 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nightshade-field-tested) Hidden $31.15 47.92 gems $0.97 1.49 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $31.15 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 1 20.0% covert 6.0% Covert 2.0% restricted 27.0% Common 10.0% Mil Spec Grade 15.0% mil spec 20.0% best hit $692 (22.23x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt