--- title: "Life Changing Luck case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Life Changing Luck ($13.64) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 4 items with odds, observed 43.67% over 3,441 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/life-changing-luck rendered: 2026-11-11T13:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Life Changing Luck](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/life-changing-luck) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Life Changing Luck A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/life-changing-luck?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/life-changing-luck?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/life-changing-luck) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/life-changing-luck?window=all) Price · $13.64 · 20.98 gems Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $12.27 from 4 items Observed RTP, 30d · 43.67% · 3,441 openings, odds method Variance · 428.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 1,000 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 650 openings · below min 7 days · 2,874 openings · below min 30 days · 3,441 openings · below min since tracking started · 3,441 openings · below min -0.5% 92.0% 184.5% **Small sample.** 3,441 openings and 3.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/life-changing-luck?window=24h) | 650 | 24.79% ±159.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/life-changing-luck?window=7d) | 2,874 | 24.61% ±75.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/life-changing-luck) | 3,441 | 43.67% ±69.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/life-changing-luck?window=all) | 3,441 | 43.67% ±69.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,549 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $8,936 13,748 gems | 72.8% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.56× | | [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 59.9% | $4.45 6.84 gems | 21.7% | 2,150 | 2125.8 | 1.01× | | [USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 20.0% | $2.00 3.07 gems | 3.3% | 739 | 709.8 | 1.04× | | [AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.37 2.1 gems | 2.2% | 658 | 709.8 | 0.93× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [L](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/L) $13.64 20.98 gems $8,936 13,748 gems 655.3x 2026-11-04 11:32 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $13.64 20.98 gems $8,936 13,748 gems 655.3x 2026-11-02 21:53 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=life-changing-luck) [USP-S | Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) Hidden $13.64 20.98 gems $2.00 3.07 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC [USP-S | Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) Hidden $13.64 20.98 gems $2.00 3.07 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC [Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) Hidden $13.64 20.98 gems $4.45 6.84 gems 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC [Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) Hidden $13.64 20.98 gems $4.45 6.84 gems 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC [AWP | Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) Hidden $13.64 20.98 gems $1.37 2.1 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC [Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) [smiffingtable](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/smiffingtable) $13.64 20.98 gems $4.45 6.84 gems 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC [Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) Hidden $13.64 20.98 gems $4.45 6.84 gems 0.33x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC [Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) Hidden $13.64 20.98 gems $4.45 6.84 gems 0.33x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC [AWP | Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) Hidden $13.64 20.98 gems $1.37 2.1 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC [USP-S | Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) Hidden $13.64 20.98 gems $2.00 3.07 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $13.64 | 89.98% | 4 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% classified 59.9% restricted 20.0% Mythical 20.0% best hit $8,936 (655.3x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt