--- title: "Looking Bearish case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Looking Bearish ($11.15) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 9 items with odds, observed 88.12% over 608 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/looking-bearish rendered: 2026-11-11T15:20Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Looking Bearish](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/looking-bearish) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Looking Bearish A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/looking-bearish?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/looking-bearish?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/looking-bearish) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/looking-bearish?window=all) Price · $11.15 · 17.15 gems Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $10.03 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.12% · 608 openings, odds method Variance · 8.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 84 openings · below min 7 days · 93.78% ±25.71 477 openings 30 days · 88.12% ±22.77 608 openings since tracking started · 88.12% ±22.77 608 openings 3.0% 65.0% 127.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/looking-bearish?window=24h) | 84 | 64.92% ±61.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/looking-bearish?window=7d) | 477 | 93.78% ±25.7 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/looking-bearish) | 608 | 88.12% ±22.8 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/looking-bearish?window=all) | 608 | 88.12% ±22.8 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 620 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $323 497 gems | 32.2% | 6 | 6.2 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $16.07 24.73 gems | 8.0% | 34 | 31.0 | 1.10× | | [FAMAS \| Meltdown (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $15.59 23.99 gems | 7.8% | 30 | 31.0 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-devourer-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $14.10 21.69 gems | 7.0% | 31 | 31.0 | 1.00× | | [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $13.32 20.49 gems | 12.0% | 51 | 55.8 | 0.91× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Weasel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-weasel-factory-new) | 15.0% | $11.98 18.43 gems | 17.9% | 87 | 93.0 | 0.94× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-phobos-factory-new) | 20.0% | $4.89 7.52 gems | 9.7% | 119 | 124.0 | 0.96× | | [P250 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.66 2.55 gems | 3.3% | 125 | 124.0 | 1.01× | | [Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-elite-1-6-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.04 1.6 gems | 2.1% | 137 | 124.0 | 1.10× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=looking-bearish) [Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-elite-1-6-factory-new) Hidden $11.15 17.15 gems $1.04 1.6 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) Hidden $11.15 17.15 gems $16.07 24.73 gems 1.44x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Phobos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-phobos-factory-new) Hidden $11.15 17.15 gems $4.89 7.52 gems 0.44x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-elite-1-6-factory-new) Hidden $11.15 17.15 gems $1.04 1.6 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) Hidden $11.15 17.15 gems $16.07 24.73 gems 1.44x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [P250 | Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) [Zed\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Zed_) $11.15 17.15 gems $1.66 2.55 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-elite-1-6-factory-new) Hidden $11.15 17.15 gems $1.04 1.6 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 10:39 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Phobos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-phobos-factory-new) Hidden $11.15 17.15 gems $4.89 7.52 gems 0.44x 2026-11-11 10:39 UTC [MAC-10 | Propaganda (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-factory-new) Hidden $11.15 17.15 gems $13.32 20.49 gems 1.19x 2026-11-11 10:39 UTC [P250 | Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) Hidden $11.15 17.15 gems $1.66 2.55 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 10:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $11.15 | 89.97% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 1.0% classified 44.0% Mythical 15.0% restricted 20.0% Rare 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt