--- title: "Looking Bullish case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Looking Bullish ($18.45) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 7 items with odds, observed 91.49% over 1,246 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/looking-bullish rendered: 2026-11-11T18:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Looking Bullish](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/looking-bullish) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Looking Bullish A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/looking-bullish?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/looking-bullish?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/looking-bullish) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/looking-bullish?window=all) Price · $18.45 · 28.38 gems Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $16.60 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.49% · 1,246 openings, odds method Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 65 openings · below min 7 days · 91.92% ±8.55 1,088 openings 30 days · 91.49% ±7.99 1,246 openings since tracking started · 91.49% ±7.99 1,246 openings 54.5% 90.3% 126.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/looking-bullish?window=24h) | 65 | 90.36% ±35.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/looking-bullish?window=7d) | 1,088 | 91.92% ±8.55 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/looking-bullish) | 1,246 | 91.49% ±7.99 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/looking-bullish?window=all) | 1,246 | 91.49% ±7.99 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,328 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $93.54 144 gems | 45.1% | 105 | 106.2 | 0.99× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $50.97 78.41 gems | 24.6% | 121 | 106.2 | 1.14× | | [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $26.08 40.13 gems | 12.6% | 97 | 106.2 | 0.91× | | [Galil AR \| Shattered (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-factory-new) | 10.0% | $9.07 13.96 gems | 5.5% | 142 | 132.8 | 1.07× | | [P250 \| Red Rock (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-factory-new) | 10.0% | $8.42 12.95 gems | 5.1% | 126 | 132.8 | 0.95× | | [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 27.0% | $2.90 4.46 gems | 4.7% | 369 | 358.6 | 1.03× | | [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-factory-new) | 29.0% | $1.45 2.23 gems | 2.5% | 368 | 385.1 | 0.96× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=looking-bullish) [Galil AR | Shattered (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-factory-new) Hidden $18.45 28.38 gems $9.07 13.96 gems 0.49x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC [P250 | Red Rock (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-factory-new) Hidden $18.45 28.38 gems $8.42 12.95 gems 0.46x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC [P250 | Red Rock (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-factory-new) Hidden $18.45 28.38 gems $8.42 12.95 gems 0.46x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC [XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-factory-new) Hidden $18.45 28.38 gems $1.45 2.23 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC [Galil AR | Shattered (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-factory-new) Hidden $18.45 28.38 gems $9.07 13.96 gems 0.49x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC [Galil AR | Shattered (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-factory-new) [Berat](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Berat) $18.45 28.38 gems $9.07 13.96 gems 0.49x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC [Galil AR | Shattered (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-factory-new) Hidden $18.45 28.38 gems $9.07 13.96 gems 0.49x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) Hidden $18.45 28.38 gems $26.08 40.13 gems 1.41x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [USP-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) Hidden $18.45 28.38 gems $2.90 4.46 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [P250 | Red Rock (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-factory-new) Hidden $18.45 28.38 gems $8.42 12.95 gems 0.46x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $18.45 | 89.98% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed mil spec 35.0% covert 8.0% restricted 47.0% blue 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt