--- title: "Low Fade case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Low Fade ($44.27) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 88.01% over 2,793 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/low-fade rendered: 2026-11-11T17:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Low Fade](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/low-fade) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Low Fade A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/low-fade?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/low-fade?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/low-fade) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/low-fade?window=all) Price · $44.27 · 68.1 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $39.84 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.01% · 2,793 openings, odds method Variance · 24.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 67 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 252 openings · below min 7 days · 89.95% ±20.40 2,287 openings 30 days · 88.01% ±18.46 2,793 openings since tracking started · 88.01% ±18.46 2,793 openings -0.5% 55.3% 111.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/low-fade?window=24h) | 252 | 36.30% ±61.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/low-fade?window=7d) | 2,287 | 89.95% ±20.4 | −0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/low-fade) | 2,793 | 88.01% ±18.5 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/low-fade?window=all) | 2,793 | 88.01% ±18.5 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,869 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $2,122 3,265 gems | 26.6% | 10 | 14.3 | 0.70× | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,625 2,500 gems | 20.4% | 10 | 14.3 | 0.70× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,185 1,823 gems | 14.9% | 18 | 14.3 | 1.25× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $907 1,395 gems | 11.4% | 22 | 14.3 | 1.53× | | [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $610 939 gems | 7.7% | 11 | 14.3 | 0.77× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $343 528 gems | 4.3% | 20 | 14.3 | 1.39× | | [UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $249 383 gems | 6.2% | 34 | 28.7 | 1.19× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $131 201 gems | 3.3% | 18 | 28.7 | 0.63× | | [MAC-10 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $22.75 35 gems | 2.9% | 162 | 143.4 | 1.13× | | [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $8.82 13.57 gems | 1.1% | 151 | 143.4 | 1.05× | | [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3.03 4.66 gems | 0.4% | 148 | 143.4 | 1.03× | | [SSG 08 \| Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) | 80.0% | $0.44 0.68 gems | 0.9% | 2,265 | 2295.2 | 0.99× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $44.27 68.1 gems $2,122 3,265 gems 47.94x 2026-11-10 13:53 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $44.27 68.1 gems $2,122 3,265 gems 47.94x 2026-11-10 00:38 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $44.27 68.1 gems $2,122 3,265 gems 47.94x 2026-11-09 23:56 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $44.27 68.1 gems $2,122 3,265 gems 47.94x 2026-11-09 00:19 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $44.27 68.1 gems $2,122 3,265 gems 47.94x 2026-11-08 02:01 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $44.27 68.1 gems $2,122 3,265 gems 47.94x 2026-11-06 15:52 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $44.27 68.1 gems $2,122 3,265 gems 47.94x 2026-11-05 19:32 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) [Turker Bin-Carlstan](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Turker%20Bin-Carlstan) $44.27 68.1 gems $2,122 3,265 gems 47.94x 2026-11-04 22:16 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $44.27 68.1 gems $2,122 3,265 gems 47.94x 2026-11-04 17:09 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $44.27 68.1 gems $2,122 3,265 gems 47.94x 2026-11-04 16:57 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=low-fade) [R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) Hidden $44.27 68.1 gems $8.82 13.57 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 17:46 UTC [SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) Hidden $44.27 68.1 gems $0.44 0.68 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:46 UTC [SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) Hidden $44.27 68.1 gems $0.44 0.68 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:46 UTC [SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) Hidden $44.27 68.1 gems $0.44 0.68 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:46 UTC [SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) Hidden $44.27 68.1 gems $0.44 0.68 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:46 UTC [SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) [Trecky](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Trecky) $44.27 68.1 gems $0.44 0.68 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:46 UTC [SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) Hidden $44.27 68.1 gems $0.44 0.68 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:36 UTC [SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) Hidden $44.27 68.1 gems $0.44 0.68 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:36 UTC [SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) Hidden $44.27 68.1 gems $0.44 0.68 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:36 UTC [SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) Hidden $44.27 68.1 gems $0.44 0.68 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $44.27 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 8.5% legendary 0.5% classified 1.0% Mil Spec Grade 5.0% restricted 5.0% mil spec 80.0% best hit $2,122 (47.94x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt