--- title: "Cosmic case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Cosmic ($24.61) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 96.34% over 410 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/low-roller rendered: 2026-11-11T20:50Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Cosmic](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/low-roller) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Cosmic A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/low-roller?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/low-roller?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/low-roller) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/low-roller?window=all) Price · $24.61 · 37.86 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $22.15 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.34% · 410 openings, odds method Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 39 openings · below min 7 days · 92.53% ±19.17 357 openings 30 days · 96.34% ±17.89 410 openings since tracking started · 96.34% ±17.89 410 openings 48.5% 107.0% 165.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/low-roller?window=24h) | 39 | 106.92% ±58.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/low-roller?window=7d) | 357 | 92.53% ±19.2 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/low-roller) | 410 | 96.34% ±17.9 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/low-roller?window=all) | 410 | 96.34% ±17.9 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 522 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $247 380 gems | 11.1% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.77× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $215 331 gems | 19.5% | 14 | 10.4 | 1.34× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $150 230 gems | 20.2% | 15 | 15.7 | 0.96× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $78.40 121 gems | 14.2% | 24 | 20.9 | 1.15× | | [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-factory-new) | 10.0% | $26.01 40.02 gems | 11.7% | 48 | 52.2 | 0.92× | | [USP-S \| Pathfinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $9.10 14 gems | 10.3% | 141 | 130.5 | 1.08× | | [MAG-7 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-silver-factory-new) | 30.0% | $7.01 10.78 gems | 9.5% | 142 | 156.6 | 0.91× | | [P250 \| Red Rock (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $3.09 4.75 gems | 3.5% | 134 | 130.5 | 1.03× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=low-roller) [MAG-7 | Silver (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-silver-factory-new) Hidden $24.61 37.86 gems $7.01 10.78 gems 0.28x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC [P250 | Red Rock (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-battle-scarred) Hidden $24.61 37.86 gems $3.09 4.75 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC [P250 | Red Rock (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-battle-scarred) Hidden $24.61 37.86 gems $3.09 4.75 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC [USP-S | Pathfinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.61 37.86 gems $9.10 14 gems 0.37x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC [USP-S | Pathfinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.61 37.86 gems $9.10 14 gems 0.37x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC [P250 | Red Rock (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-battle-scarred) [Stariks](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Stariks) $24.61 37.86 gems $3.09 4.75 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC [USP-S | Pathfinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.61 37.86 gems $9.10 14 gems 0.37x 2026-11-11 17:02 UTC [P250 | Red Rock (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-battle-scarred) Hidden $24.61 37.86 gems $3.09 4.75 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 17:02 UTC [USP-S | Pathfinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.61 37.86 gems $9.10 14 gems 0.37x 2026-11-11 17:02 UTC [P250 | Red Rock (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-battle-scarred) [Liborosak](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Liborosak) $24.61 37.86 gems $3.09 4.75 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 17:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $24.61 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 8.0% extraordinary 2.0% violet 10.0% industrial 25.0% #87c7ff 30.0% restricted 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt