--- title: "Lucky Gamma case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lucky Gamma ($28.39) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 7 items with odds, observed 93.06% over 3,884 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lucky-gamma rendered: 2026-11-11T20:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Lucky Gamma](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lucky-gamma) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Lucky Gamma A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lucky-gamma?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lucky-gamma?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lucky-gamma) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lucky-gamma?window=all) Price · $28.39 · 43.68 gems Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $25.55 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.06% · 3,884 openings, odds method Variance · 27.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 461 openings · below min 7 days · 92.23% ±18.15 3,213 openings 30 days · 93.06% ±16.51 3,884 openings since tracking started · 93.06% ±16.51 3,884 openings 73.5% 128.0% 182.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lucky-gamma?window=24h) | 461 | 133.80% ±47.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lucky-gamma?window=7d) | 3,213 | 92.23% ±18.2 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lucky-gamma) | 3,884 | 93.06% ±16.5 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lucky-gamma?window=all) | 3,884 | 93.06% ±16.5 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,960 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,575 2,423 gems | 30.8% | 24 | 19.8 | 1.21× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,098 1,689 gems | 21.5% | 18 | 19.8 | 0.91× | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $494 760 gems | 19.3% | 39 | 39.6 | 0.98× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $361 556 gems | 14.1% | 36 | 39.6 | 0.91× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $222 342 gems | 8.7% | 40 | 39.6 | 1.01× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $140 215 gems | 5.5% | 40 | 39.6 | 1.01× | | [Five-SeveN \| Coolant (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-factory-new) | 95.0% | $0.01 0.02 gems | 0.0% | 3,763 | 3762.0 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $28.39 43.68 gems $1,575 2,423 gems 55.48x 2026-11-11 16:20 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [( ͡° ᴥ ͡° )](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%28%20%CD%A1%C2%B0%20%E1%B4%A5%20%CD%A1%C2%B0%20%29) $28.39 43.68 gems $1,575 2,423 gems 55.48x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $28.39 43.68 gems $1,575 2,423 gems 55.48x 2026-11-11 04:10 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $28.39 43.68 gems $1,575 2,423 gems 55.48x 2026-11-11 04:04 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $28.39 43.68 gems $1,575 2,423 gems 55.48x 2026-11-11 01:07 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [Anonymous931767](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Anonymous931767) $28.39 43.68 gems $1,575 2,423 gems 55.48x 2026-11-10 20:32 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $28.39 43.68 gems $1,575 2,423 gems 55.48x 2026-11-10 15:45 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $28.39 43.68 gems $1,575 2,423 gems 55.48x 2026-11-10 11:53 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $28.39 43.68 gems $1,575 2,423 gems 55.48x 2026-11-09 23:27 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $28.39 43.68 gems $1,575 2,423 gems 55.48x 2026-11-09 22:30 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=lucky-gamma) [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-factory-new) Hidden $28.39 43.68 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-factory-new) Hidden $28.39 43.68 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-factory-new) Hidden $28.39 43.68 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $28.39 43.68 gems $222 342 gems 7.83x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-factory-new) Hidden $28.39 43.68 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-factory-new) [神](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%E7%A5%9E) $28.39 43.68 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-factory-new) Hidden $28.39 43.68 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-factory-new) Hidden $28.39 43.68 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-factory-new) Hidden $28.39 43.68 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-factory-new) Hidden $28.39 43.68 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $28.39 | 89.98% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed gold 1.5% #ffd700 1.5% sunny 1.0% Immortal 1.0% consumer 95.0% best hit $1,575 (55.48x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt