--- title: "Lunar Wolf Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lunar Wolf Case ($36.90) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 11 items with odds, observed 78.85% over 3,034 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lunar-wolf-case rendered: 2026-11-11T17:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Lunar Wolf Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lunar-wolf-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Lunar Wolf Case A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lunar-wolf-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lunar-wolf-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lunar-wolf-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lunar-wolf-case?window=all) Price · $36.90 · 56.77 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $33.21 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.85% · 3,034 openings, odds method Variance · 45.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 397 openings · below min 7 days · 82.56% ±27.86 2,262 openings 30 days · 78.85% ±24.06 3,034 openings since tracking started · 78.85% ±24.06 3,034 openings -0.5% 65.5% 131.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lunar-wolf-case?window=24h) | 397 | 64.28% ±66.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lunar-wolf-case?window=7d) | 2,262 | 82.56% ±27.9 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lunar-wolf-case) | 3,034 | 78.85% ±24.1 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/lunar-wolf-case?window=all) | 3,034 | 78.85% ±24.1 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,056 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $4,692 7,219 gems | 35.3% | 4 | 7.6 | 0.52× | | [Sticker \| Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) | 1 in 400 | $1,071 1,647 gems | 8.1% | 10 | 7.6 | 1.31× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $721 1,110 gems | 10.9% | 19 | 15.3 | 1.24× | | [★ Karambit \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $406 624 gems | 12.2% | 32 | 30.6 | 1.05× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $226 347 gems | 10.2% | 44 | 45.8 | 0.96× | | [★ Bayonet \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $115 178 gems | 8.7% | 70 | 76.4 | 0.92× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $39.23 60.36 gems | 4.7% | 106 | 122.2 | 0.87× | | [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 10.0% | $13.58 20.9 gems | 4.1% | 306 | 305.6 | 1.00× | | [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $5.87 9.03 gems | 3.5% | 616 | 611.2 | 1.01× | | [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 30.0% | $1.95 3 gems | 1.8% | 903 | 916.8 | 0.98× | | [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $0.60 0.92 gems | 0.5% | 946 | 916.8 | 1.03× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $36.90 56.77 gems $4,692 7,219 gems 127.2x 2026-11-06 11:41 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $36.90 56.77 gems $4,692 7,219 gems 127.2x 2026-11-06 02:44 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $36.90 56.77 gems $4,692 7,219 gems 127.2x 2026-11-04 22:52 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $36.90 56.77 gems $4,692 7,219 gems 127.2x 2026-11-04 02:55 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) Hidden $36.90 56.77 gems $1,071 1,647 gems 29.02x 2026-11-11 16:58 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) [ich hab kleine d](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/ich%20hab%20kleine%20d) $36.90 56.77 gems $1,071 1,647 gems 29.02x 2026-11-11 00:11 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) Hidden $36.90 56.77 gems $1,071 1,647 gems 29.02x 2026-11-10 23:58 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) Hidden $36.90 56.77 gems $1,071 1,647 gems 29.02x 2026-11-10 14:30 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) [Kick/HarryJZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Kick%2FHarryJZ) $36.90 56.77 gems $1,071 1,647 gems 29.02x 2026-11-07 16:26 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) Hidden $36.90 56.77 gems $1,071 1,647 gems 29.02x 2026-11-06 19:48 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=lunar-wolf-case) [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $36.90 56.77 gems $0.60 0.92 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:45 UTC [★ Karambit | Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $36.90 56.77 gems $406 624 gems 11.00x 2026-11-11 17:45 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $36.90 56.77 gems $0.60 0.92 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:45 UTC [FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) Hidden $36.90 56.77 gems $5.87 9.03 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 17:45 UTC [FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) Hidden $36.90 56.77 gems $5.87 9.03 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 17:45 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) [Trecky](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Trecky) $36.90 56.77 gems $1.95 3 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:45 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $36.90 56.77 gems $0.60 0.92 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:30 UTC [FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) Hidden $36.90 56.77 gems $5.87 9.03 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 17:30 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $36.90 56.77 gems $0.60 0.92 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:30 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $36.90 56.77 gems $0.60 0.92 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $36.90 | 90.00% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 0.5% extraordinary 0.5% covert 7.5% Covert 1.5% pink 30.0% restricted 60.0% best hit $4,692 (127.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt