--- title: "M4 vs AK case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "M4 vs AK ($55.80) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 12 items with odds, observed 87.23% over 664 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/m4-vs-ak rendered: 2026-11-11T18:01Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [M4 vs AK](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/m4-vs-ak) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · M4 vs AK A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/m4-vs-ak?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/m4-vs-ak?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/m4-vs-ak) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/m4-vs-ak?window=all) Price · $55.80 · 85.85 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $50.22 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.23% · 664 openings, odds method Variance · 11.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 110 openings · below min 7 days · 90.18% ±31.61 446 openings 30 days · 87.23% ±25.91 664 openings since tracking started · 87.23% ±25.91 664 openings 40.5% 104.7% 169.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/m4-vs-ak?window=24h) | 110 | 104.78% ±63.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/m4-vs-ak?window=7d) | 446 | 90.18% ±31.6 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/m4-vs-ak) | 664 | 87.23% ±25.9 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/m4-vs-ak?window=all) | 664 | 87.23% ±25.9 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 676 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $2,795 4,300 gems | 13.9% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,737 2,673 gems | 8.6% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.18× | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $790 1,216 gems | 7.9% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.18× | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $592 911 gems | 11.8% | 13 | 6.8 | 1.92× | | [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $455 700 gems | 9.1% | 3 | 6.8 | 0.44× | | [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $304 468 gems | 12.1% | 13 | 13.5 | 0.96× | | [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $139 214 gems | 6.9% | 18 | 16.9 | 1.07× | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $87.30 134 gems | 4.3% | 16 | 16.9 | 0.95× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $47.59 73.22 gems | 9.5% | 78 | 67.6 | 1.15× | | [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-well-worn) | 10.0% | $29.21 44.94 gems | 5.8% | 61 | 67.6 | 0.90× | | [M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $13.31 20.47 gems | 2.6% | 71 | 67.6 | 1.05× | | [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) | 60.0% | $6.19 9.52 gems | 7.4% | 397 | 405.6 | 0.98× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $55.80 85.85 gems $1,737 2,673 gems 31.13x 2026-11-11 15:57 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $55.80 85.85 gems $1,737 2,673 gems 31.13x 2026-11-03 17:44 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) Hidden $55.80 85.85 gems $790 1,216 gems 14.16x 2026-11-09 18:02 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) Hidden $55.80 85.85 gems $790 1,216 gems 14.16x 2026-11-09 17:57 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) Hidden $55.80 85.85 gems $790 1,216 gems 14.16x 2026-11-08 20:26 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) Hidden $55.80 85.85 gems $790 1,216 gems 14.16x 2026-11-05 01:11 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) Hidden $55.80 85.85 gems $592 911 gems 10.61x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) Hidden $55.80 85.85 gems $592 911 gems 10.61x 2026-11-11 15:59 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) Hidden $55.80 85.85 gems $592 911 gems 10.61x 2026-11-11 04:29 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) Hidden $55.80 85.85 gems $592 911 gems 10.61x 2026-11-07 22:24 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=m4-vs-ak) [M4A4 | Hellish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-battle-scarred) Hidden $55.80 85.85 gems $13.31 20.47 gems 0.24x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC [AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) Hidden $55.80 85.85 gems $6.19 9.52 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) Hidden $55.80 85.85 gems $592 911 gems 10.61x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC [AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) Hidden $55.80 85.85 gems $6.19 9.52 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC [AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) Hidden $55.80 85.85 gems $6.19 9.52 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC [AK-47 | The Oligarch (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-well-worn) Hidden $55.80 85.85 gems $29.21 44.94 gems 0.52x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC [AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) Hidden $55.80 85.85 gems $6.19 9.52 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) Hidden $55.80 85.85 gems $6.19 9.52 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) Hidden $55.80 85.85 gems $6.19 9.52 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [M4A4 | The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) Hidden $55.80 85.85 gems $47.59 73.22 gems 0.85x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $55.80 | 89.99% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 0.3% covert 3.8% classified 2.5% Covert 1.0% red 22.5% Classified 10.0% pink 60.0% best hit $1,737 (31.13x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt