---
title: "M9 case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "M9 ($94.20) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 18 items with odds, observed 90.75% over 893 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/m9
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [M9](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/m9)

# [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · M9

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/m9?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/m9?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/m9) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/m9?window=all)

Price · $94.20 · 145 gems

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $84.78 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.75% · 893 openings, odds method

Variance · 8.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 27 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 123.51% ±44.13 168 openings

7 days · 96.49% ±20.35 790 openings

30 days · 90.75% ±19.14 893 openings

since tracking started · 90.75% ±19.14 893 openings

71.0% 119.8% 168.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/m9?window=24h) | 168 | 123.51% ±44.1 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/m9?window=7d) | 790 | 96.49% ±20.4 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/m9) | 893 | 90.75% ±19.1 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/m9?window=all) | 893 | 90.75% ±19.1 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 919 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,830 5,893 gems | 4.5% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $2,065 3,176 gems | 4.9% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.54× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $1,683 2,590 gems | 6.0% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $1,375 2,115 gems | 6.5% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.82× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,253 1,928 gems | 7.4% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.09× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Vanilla (Factory New) knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-vanilla-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $1,077 1,656 gems | 9.5% | 3 | 6.9 | 0.44× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $1,020 1,570 gems | 9.0% | 7 | 6.9 | 1.02× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $887 1,365 gems | 7.8% | 8 | 6.9 | 1.16× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $565 869 gems | 6.7% | 9 | 9.2 | 0.98× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $552 849 gems | 6.5% | 11 | 9.2 | 1.20× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $429 660 gems | 10.1% | 24 | 18.4 | 1.31× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $380 584 gems | 10.1% | 24 | 20.7 | 1.16× |
| [Operation Breakout Case Key other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/operation-breakout-case-key) | 10.0% | $16.89 25.99 gems | 2.0% | 93 | 91.9 | 1.01× |
| [Danger Zone Case Key other · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/danger-zone-case-key) | 10.0% | $12.71 19.55 gems | 1.5% | 94 | 91.9 | 1.02× |
| [CS20 Case Key other · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs20-case-key) | 15.0% | $12.01 18.48 gems | 2.1% | 108 | 137.8 | 0.78× |
| [Prisma Case Key other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/prisma-case-key) | 15.0% | $9.40 14.46 gems | 1.7% | 153 | 137.8 | 1.11× |
| [Chroma 2 Case Key other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/chroma-2-case-key) | 20.0% | $8.63 13.28 gems | 2.0% | 193 | 183.8 | 1.05× |
| [Horizon Case Key other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/horizon-case-key) | 20.0% | $7.22 11.1 gems | 1.7% | 181 | 183.8 | 0.98× |

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $3,830 5,893 gems 40.66x 2026-11-06 18:59 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $3,830 5,893 gems 40.66x 2026-11-06 00:15 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $2,065 3,176 gems 21.92x 2026-11-05 15:21 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $1,375 2,115 gems 14.59x 2026-11-06 20:45 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $1,375 2,115 gems 14.59x 2026-11-05 00:33 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $1,375 2,115 gems 14.59x 2026-11-05 00:12 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $1,253 1,928 gems 13.31x 2026-11-11 02:49 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $1,253 1,928 gems 13.31x 2026-11-11 02:40 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $1,253 1,928 gems 13.31x 2026-11-08 23:49 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) [@jordanr](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%40jordanr) $94.20 145 gems $1,253 1,928 gems 13.31x 2026-11-08 19:33 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=m9)

[Danger Zone Case Key other · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/danger-zone-case-key) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $12.71 19.55 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $429 660 gems 4.55x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[Horizon Case Key other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/horizon-case-key) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $7.22 11.1 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[Horizon Case Key other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/horizon-case-key) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $7.22 11.1 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[CS20 Case Key other · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs20-case-key) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $12.01 18.48 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[Chroma 2 Case Key other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/chroma-2-case-key) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $94.20 145 gems $8.63 13.28 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[Prisma Case Key other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/prisma-case-key) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $9.40 14.46 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 02:49 UTC

[Operation Breakout Case Key other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/operation-breakout-case-key) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $16.89 25.99 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 02:49 UTC

[Chroma 2 Case Key other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/chroma-2-case-key) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $8.63 13.28 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 02:49 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $1,253 1,928 gems 13.31x 2026-11-11 02:49 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $94.20 | 90.00% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 4.3% #ffd700 0.2% sunny 0.5% other 0.8% covert knife 3.3% knifes 1.0% base 45.0% Base Grade 25.0% #B0C3D9 20.0% best hit $3,830 (40.66x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt