--- title: "Mac10 Rush case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mac10 Rush ($6.36) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.94% from 9 items with odds, observed 88.79% over 6,648 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mac10-rush rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Mac10 Rush](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mac10-rush) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Mac10 Rush A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mac10-rush?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mac10-rush?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mac10-rush) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mac10-rush?window=all) Price · $6.36 · 9.78 gems Advertised RTP · 89.94% · EV $5.72 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.79% · 6,648 openings, odds method Variance · 14.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 88.57% ±29.31 649 openings 7 days · 88.11% ±9.85 5,741 openings 30 days · 88.79% ±9.16 6,648 openings since tracking started · 88.79% ±9.16 6,648 openings 58.5% 88.5% 118.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mac10-rush?window=24h) | 649 | 88.57% ±29.3 | −0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mac10-rush?window=7d) | 5,741 | 88.11% ±9.85 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mac10-rush) | 6,648 | 88.79% ±9.16 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mac10-rush?window=all) | 6,648 | 88.79% ±9.16 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,828 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $329 507 gems | 17.3% | 21 | 20.5 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-stalker-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $142 219 gems | 17.4% | 50 | 47.7 | 1.05× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Graven (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · SMGs](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-graven-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $87.10 134 gems | 15.2% | 68 | 68.3 | 1.00× | | [MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $56.53 86.97 gems | 9.9% | 60 | 68.3 | 0.88× | | [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $48.82 75.11 gems | 8.5% | 65 | 68.3 | 0.95× | | [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $21.99 33.83 gems | 11.5% | 215 | 204.8 | 1.05× | | [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $10.10 15.54 gems | 5.3% | 200 | 204.8 | 0.98× | | [MAC-10 \| Heat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-factory-new) | 25.0% | $3.27 5.03 gems | 14.3% | 1,705 | 1707.0 | 1.00× | | [MAC-10 \| Sienna Damask (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sienna-damask-battle-scarred) | 65.0% | $0.05 0.07 gems | 0.5% | 4,444 | 4438.3 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $6.36 9.78 gems $329 507 gems 51.83x 2026-11-11 00:15 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $6.36 9.78 gems $329 507 gems 51.83x 2026-11-10 15:20 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $6.36 9.78 gems $329 507 gems 51.83x 2026-11-10 15:15 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $6.36 9.78 gems $329 507 gems 51.83x 2026-11-09 20:09 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $6.36 9.78 gems $329 507 gems 51.83x 2026-11-09 20:05 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $6.36 9.78 gems $329 507 gems 51.83x 2026-11-09 12:01 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $6.36 9.78 gems $329 507 gems 51.83x 2026-11-09 12:00 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $6.36 9.78 gems $329 507 gems 51.83x 2026-11-08 23:49 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) [Sanjivan25](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Sanjivan25) $6.36 9.78 gems $329 507 gems 51.83x 2026-11-08 01:16 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $6.36 9.78 gems $329 507 gems 51.83x 2026-11-08 00:07 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=mac10-rush) [MAC-10 | Sienna Damask (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sienna-damask-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.36 9.78 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [MAC-10 | Sienna Damask (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sienna-damask-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.36 9.78 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [MAC-10 | Sienna Damask (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sienna-damask-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.36 9.78 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [MAC-10 | Sienna Damask (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sienna-damask-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.36 9.78 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [MAC-10 | Sienna Damask (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sienna-damask-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.36 9.78 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [MAC-10 | Sienna Damask (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sienna-damask-battle-scarred) [Albino](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Albino) $6.36 9.78 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [MAC-10 | Sienna Damask (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sienna-damask-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.36 9.78 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC [MAC-10 | Heat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-factory-new) Hidden $6.36 9.78 gems $3.27 5.03 gems 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC [MAC-10 | Sienna Damask (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sienna-damask-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.36 9.78 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC [MAC-10 | Sienna Damask (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sienna-damask-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.36 9.78 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $6.36 | 89.94% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.0% SMGs 1.0% restricted 27.0% #8847ff 3.0% mil spec 3.0% Common 65.0% best hit $329 (51.83x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.94 on average: an expected loss of $10.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt