--- title: "Mad Scientist case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mad Scientist ($106.14) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 63.92% over 140 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mad-scientist rendered: 2026-11-11T14:07Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Mad Scientist](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mad-scientist) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Mad Scientist A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mad-scientist?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mad-scientist?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mad-scientist) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mad-scientist?window=all) Price · $106.14 · 163 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $95.52 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 63.92% · 140 openings, odds method Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 36 openings · below min 7 days · 66.41% ±23.94 128 openings 30 days · 63.92% ±22.89 140 openings since tracking started · 63.92% ±22.89 140 openings 3.0% 49.0% 95.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (41.03% – 86.80%, 140 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mad-scientist?window=24h) | 36 | 49.00% ±45.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mad-scientist?window=7d) | 128 | 66.41% ±23.9 | −1.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mad-scientist) | 140 | 63.92% ±22.9 | −2.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mad-scientist?window=all) | 140 | 63.92% ±22.9 | −2.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 140 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 10.0% | $406 624 gems | 42.5% | 7 | 14.0 | 0.50× | | [★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-factory-new) | 10.0% | $307 472 gems | 32.1% | 14 | 14.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-field-tested) | 10.0% | $218 335 gems | 22.8% | 9 | 14.0 | 0.64× | | [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-factory-new) | 23.0% | $6.84 10.53 gems | 1.6% | 39 | 32.2 | 1.21× | | [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 23.0% | $2.36 3.63 gems | 0.6% | 32 | 32.2 | 0.99× | | [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-factory-new) | 24.0% | $1.55 2.38 gems | 0.4% | 39 | 33.6 | 1.16× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=mad-scientist) [USP-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) Hidden $106 163 gems $2.36 3.63 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $106 163 gems $406 624 gems 3.82x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-factory-new) Hidden $106 163 gems $6.84 10.53 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-factory-new) Hidden $106 163 gems $6.84 10.53 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [USP-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) Hidden $106 163 gems $2.36 3.63 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-factory-new) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $106 163 gems $1.55 2.38 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [★ Bayonet | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $106 163 gems $307 472 gems 2.89x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC [USP-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) Hidden $106 163 gems $2.36 3.63 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-factory-new) Hidden $106 163 gems $1.55 2.38 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC [Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-factory-new) Hidden $106 163 gems $6.84 10.53 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $106 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 10.0% covert 10.0% extraordinary 10.0% Legendary 23.0% mil spec 23.0% restricted 24.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt