--- title: "Mafia case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Mafia ($62.59) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 89.45% over 169 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mafia rendered: 2026-11-11T15:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Mafia](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mafia) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Mafia A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mafia?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mafia?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mafia) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mafia?window=all) Price · $62.59 · 96.29 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $56.33 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.45% · 169 openings, odds method Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 90.14% ±25.92 143 openings 30 days · 89.45% ±23.84 169 openings since tracking started · 89.45% ±23.84 169 openings -0.5% 90.5% 181.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mafia?window=24h) | 6 | 54.38% ±126.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mafia?window=7d) | 143 | 90.14% ±25.9 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mafia) | 169 | 89.45% ±23.8 | −0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mafia?window=all) | 169 | 89.45% ±23.8 | −0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 169 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $553 851 gems | 29.5% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.99× | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $220 339 gems | 11.7% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 14.0% | $94.44 145 gems | 23.5% | 29 | 23.7 | 1.23× | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 15.0% | $78.83 121 gems | 21.0% | 26 | 25.3 | 1.03× | | [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $35.48 54.58 gems | 3.1% | 9 | 8.4 | 1.07× | | [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $29.95 46.07 gems | 2.7% | 5 | 8.4 | 0.59× | | [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $18.90 29.08 gems | 1.7% | 6 | 8.4 | 0.71× | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) | 50.0% | $7.74 11.9 gems | 6.9% | 86 | 84.5 | 1.02× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-factory-new) Hidden $62.59 96.29 gems $553 851 gems 8.84x 2026-11-09 12:02 UTC [AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-factory-new) Hidden $62.59 96.29 gems $553 851 gems 8.84x 2026-11-09 12:02 UTC [AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-factory-new) Hidden $62.59 96.29 gems $553 851 gems 8.84x 2026-11-07 19:49 UTC [AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-factory-new) Hidden $62.59 96.29 gems $553 851 gems 8.84x 2026-11-05 17:32 UTC [AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-factory-new) Hidden $62.59 96.29 gems $553 851 gems 8.84x 2026-11-03 19:45 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=mafia) [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) [Evi\*\*\*ean](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Evi***ean-11447714) $62.59 96.29 gems $7.74 11.9 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 00:25 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) [Evi\*\*\*ean](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Evi***ean-11447714) $62.59 96.29 gems $94.44 145 gems 1.51x 2026-11-11 00:25 UTC [Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) [Evi\*\*\*ean](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Evi***ean-11447714) $62.59 96.29 gems $78.83 121 gems 1.26x 2026-11-11 00:25 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $62.59 96.29 gems $7.74 11.9 gems 0.12x 2026-11-10 19:37 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $62.59 96.29 gems $7.74 11.9 gems 0.12x 2026-11-10 19:37 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $62.59 96.29 gems $7.74 11.9 gems 0.12x 2026-11-10 19:37 UTC [Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) Hidden $62.59 96.29 gems $78.83 121 gems 1.26x 2026-11-09 22:33 UTC [P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) Hidden $62.59 96.29 gems $35.48 54.58 gems 0.57x 2026-11-09 22:33 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $62.59 96.29 gems $7.74 11.9 gems 0.12x 2026-11-09 22:33 UTC [Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $62.59 96.29 gems $78.83 121 gems 1.26x 2026-11-09 22:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $62.59 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 11.0% covert 89.0% best hit $553 (8.84x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt