--- title: "Major Madness case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Major Madness ($66.50) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 106.40% over 1,069 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/major-madness rendered: 2026-11-11T21:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Major Madness](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/major-madness) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Major Madness A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/major-madness?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/major-madness?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/major-madness) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/major-madness?window=all) Price · $66.50 · 102 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $59.84 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 106.40% · 1,069 openings, odds method Variance · 12.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 96 openings · below min 7 days · 103.87% ±22.86 897 openings 30 days · 106.40% ±20.94 1,069 openings since tracking started · 106.40% ±20.94 1,069 openings 1.5% 72.0% 142.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/major-madness?window=24h) | 96 | 71.82% ±69.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/major-madness?window=7d) | 897 | 103.87% ±22.9 | +1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/major-madness) | 1,069 | 106.40% ±20.9 | +1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/major-madness?window=all) | 1,069 | 106.40% ±20.9 | +1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,151 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| LongDog (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-longdog-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,564 2,406 gems | 52.3% | 29 | 23.0 | 1.26× | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Pistols](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $519 799 gems | 17.4% | 31 | 23.0 | 1.35× | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Hellish (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-hellish-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $340 522 gems | 11.3% | 24 | 23.0 | 1.04× | | [Souvenir MP9 \| Latte Rush (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-latte-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $169 260 gems | 5.7% | 22 | 23.0 | 0.96× | | [Souvenir AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-longdog-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $108 166 gems | 3.6% | 24 | 23.0 | 1.04× | | [Sticker \| JamYoung (Gold) \| Budapest 2025 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-jamyoung-gold-budapest-2025) | 10.0% | $27.17 41.8 gems | 4.5% | 115 | 115.1 | 1.00× | | [Sticker \| NiKo (Gold) \| Budapest 2025 sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-niko-gold-budapest-2025) | 10.0% | $14.98 23.04 gems | 2.5% | 107 | 115.1 | 0.93× | | [Sticker \| drop (Gold) \| Budapest 2025 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-drop-gold-budapest-2025) | 15.0% | $7.35 11.3 gems | 1.8% | 159 | 172.7 | 0.92× | | [Sticker \| EliGE (Gold) \| Budapest 2025 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-elige-gold-budapest-2025) | 15.0% | $3.44 5.29 gems | 0.9% | 197 | 172.7 | 1.14× | | [Sticker \| drop \| Budapest 2025 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-drop-budapest-2025) | 40.0% | $0.03 0.05 gems | 0.0% | 443 | 460.4 | 0.96× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AWP | LongDog (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-longdog-factory-new) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $66.50 102 gems $1,564 2,406 gems 23.52x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC [Souvenir AWP | LongDog (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-longdog-factory-new) Hidden $66.50 102 gems $1,564 2,406 gems 23.52x 2026-11-11 03:12 UTC [Souvenir AWP | LongDog (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-longdog-factory-new) [Sleepy Jackalope](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Sleepy%20Jackalope) $66.50 102 gems $1,564 2,406 gems 23.52x 2026-11-10 17:54 UTC [Souvenir AWP | LongDog (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-longdog-factory-new) Hidden $66.50 102 gems $1,564 2,406 gems 23.52x 2026-11-09 20:55 UTC [Souvenir AWP | LongDog (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-longdog-factory-new) Hidden $66.50 102 gems $1,564 2,406 gems 23.52x 2026-11-09 02:24 UTC [Souvenir AWP | LongDog (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-longdog-factory-new) Hidden $66.50 102 gems $1,564 2,406 gems 23.52x 2026-11-08 01:00 UTC [Souvenir AWP | LongDog (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-longdog-factory-new) Hidden $66.50 102 gems $1,564 2,406 gems 23.52x 2026-11-08 00:34 UTC [Souvenir AWP | LongDog (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-longdog-factory-new) [Kotix](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Kotix) $66.50 102 gems $1,564 2,406 gems 23.52x 2026-11-08 00:31 UTC [Souvenir AWP | LongDog (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-longdog-factory-new) [USE CODE CARLZUMO](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/USE%20CODE%20CARLZUMO) $66.50 102 gems $1,564 2,406 gems 23.52x 2026-11-08 00:19 UTC [Souvenir AWP | LongDog (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-longdog-factory-new) Hidden $66.50 102 gems $1,564 2,406 gems 23.52x 2026-11-06 23:19 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=major-madness) [Sticker | drop (Gold) | Budapest 2025 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-drop-gold-budapest-2025) Hidden $66.50 102 gems $7.35 11.3 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 21:03 UTC [Sticker | drop | Budapest 2025 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-drop-budapest-2025) Hidden $66.50 102 gems $0.03 0.05 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:03 UTC [Sticker | drop | Budapest 2025 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-drop-budapest-2025) Hidden $66.50 102 gems $0.03 0.05 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:03 UTC [Sticker | drop (Gold) | Budapest 2025 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-drop-gold-budapest-2025) Hidden $66.50 102 gems $7.35 11.3 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 21:03 UTC [Sticker | drop (Gold) | Budapest 2025 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-drop-gold-budapest-2025) Hidden $66.50 102 gems $7.35 11.3 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 21:03 UTC [Sticker | drop | Budapest 2025 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-drop-budapest-2025) [colin](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/colin) $66.50 102 gems $0.03 0.05 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:03 UTC [Sticker | drop (Gold) | Budapest 2025 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-drop-gold-budapest-2025) Hidden $66.50 102 gems $7.35 11.3 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC [Sticker | EliGE (Gold) | Budapest 2025 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-elige-gold-budapest-2025) Hidden $66.50 102 gems $3.44 5.29 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC [Sticker | drop | Budapest 2025 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-drop-budapest-2025) Hidden $66.50 102 gems $0.03 0.05 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC [Sticker | NiKo (Gold) | Budapest 2025 sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-niko-gold-budapest-2025) Hidden $66.50 102 gems $14.98 23.04 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $66.50 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Ancient 14.0% Pistols 2.0% Legendary 4.0% other 80.0% best hit $1,564 (23.52x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt