--- title: "Mayhem case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Mayhem ($89.16) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 11 items with odds, observed 97.10% over 799 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mayhem rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Mayhem](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mayhem) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Mayhem A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mayhem?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mayhem?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mayhem) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mayhem?window=all) Price · $89.16 · 137 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $80.24 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.10% · 799 openings, odds method Variance · 8.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 56 openings · below min 7 days · 90.58% ±21.99 697 openings 30 days · 97.10% ±20.54 799 openings since tracking started · 97.10% ±20.54 799 openings -0.5% 59.0% 118.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mayhem?window=24h) | 56 | 29.54% ±77.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mayhem?window=7d) | 697 | 90.58% ±22.0 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mayhem) | 799 | 97.10% ±20.5 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mayhem?window=all) | 799 | 97.10% ±20.5 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 847 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $1,532 2,357 gems | 47.7% | 24 | 21.2 | 1.13× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $787 1,211 gems | 24.5% | 20 | 21.2 | 0.94× | | [PP-Bizon \| Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-modern-hunter-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $168 258 gems | 10.4% | 46 | 42.4 | 1.09× | | [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $74.10 114 gems | 4.6% | 44 | 42.4 | 1.04× | | [P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $61.04 93.9 gems | 3.8% | 37 | 42.4 | 0.87× | | [AUG \| Copperhead (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-copperhead-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $46.36 71.33 gems | 2.9% | 40 | 42.4 | 0.94× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $27.78 42.74 gems | 1.7% | 49 | 42.4 | 1.16× | | [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $18.15 27.93 gems | 1.1% | 45 | 42.4 | 1.06× | | [AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $12.97 19.95 gems | 0.8% | 42 | 42.4 | 0.99× | | [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $6.58 10.13 gems | 0.4% | 32 | 42.4 | 0.76× | | [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-minimal-wear) | 55.0% | $2.78 4.28 gems | 1.9% | 468 | 465.9 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $89.16 137 gems $1,532 2,357 gems 17.18x 2026-11-10 13:37 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $89.16 137 gems $1,532 2,357 gems 17.18x 2026-11-09 23:32 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) [middlemasluke99](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/middlemasluke99) $89.16 137 gems $1,532 2,357 gems 17.18x 2026-11-09 23:29 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) [buffe](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/buffe) $89.16 137 gems $1,532 2,357 gems 17.18x 2026-11-08 23:59 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $89.16 137 gems $1,532 2,357 gems 17.18x 2026-11-08 16:35 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $89.16 137 gems $1,532 2,357 gems 17.18x 2026-11-08 16:28 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) [aizolas](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/aizolas) $89.16 137 gems $1,532 2,357 gems 17.18x 2026-11-08 06:25 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $89.16 137 gems $1,532 2,357 gems 17.18x 2026-11-08 06:25 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $89.16 137 gems $1,532 2,357 gems 17.18x 2026-11-08 01:20 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $89.16 137 gems $1,532 2,357 gems 17.18x 2026-11-08 01:09 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=mayhem) [PP-Bizon | Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-modern-hunter-factory-new) Hidden $89.16 137 gems $168 258 gems 1.88x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-minimal-wear) Hidden $89.16 137 gems $2.78 4.28 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-minimal-wear) Hidden $89.16 137 gems $2.78 4.28 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $89.16 137 gems $74.10 114 gems 0.83x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [MP7 | Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-battle-scarred) Hidden $89.16 137 gems $18.15 27.93 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-minimal-wear) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $89.16 137 gems $2.78 4.28 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [AUG | Copperhead (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-copperhead-field-tested) Hidden $89.16 137 gems $46.36 71.33 gems 0.52x 2026-11-11 08:45 UTC [Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $89.16 137 gems $74.10 114 gems 0.83x 2026-11-11 08:45 UTC [Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-minimal-wear) Hidden $89.16 137 gems $2.78 4.28 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 08:45 UTC [Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-minimal-wear) Hidden $89.16 137 gems $2.78 4.28 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 08:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $89.16 | 90.00% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 2.5% covert 12.5% mil spec 5.0% milspec 5.0% classified 10.0% #eb4b4b 5.0% restricted 60.0% best hit $1,532 (17.18x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt