--- title: "Medium 50-50 case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Medium 50-50 ($8.94) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 92.27% over 2,389 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/medium-50-50 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Medium 50-50](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/medium-50-50) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Medium 50-50 A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/medium-50-50?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/medium-50-50?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/medium-50-50) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/medium-50-50?window=all) Price · $8.94 · 13.75 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $8.04 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.27% · 2,389 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 30.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 99.68% ±9.32 358 openings 7 days · 92.18% ±3.76 2,203 openings 30 days · 92.27% ±3.61 2,389 openings since tracking started · 92.27% ±3.61 2,389 openings 88.0% 98.8% 109.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/medium-50-50?window=24h) | 358 | 99.68% ±9.32 | +2.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/medium-50-50?window=7d) | 2,203 | 92.18% ±3.76 | +1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/medium-50-50) | 2,389 | 92.27% ±3.61 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/medium-50-50?window=all) | 2,389 | 92.27% ±3.61 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,440 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-toybox-factory-new) | 10.0% | $19.43 29.89 gems | 24.2% | 266 | 244.0 | 1.09× | | [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $17.52 26.95 gems | 21.8% | 258 | 244.0 | 1.06× | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 10.0% | $16.76 25.79 gems | 20.8% | 255 | 244.0 | 1.05× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 10.0% | $13.86 21.32 gems | 17.2% | 238 | 244.0 | 0.98× | | [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-primal-saber-factory-new) | 10.0% | $11.62 17.87 gems | 14.4% | 219 | 244.0 | 0.90× | | [M249 \| Warbird (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-warbird-factory-new) | 16.0% | $0.57 0.87 gems | 1.1% | 401 | 390.4 | 1.03× | | [MP9 \| Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-factory-new) | 17.0% | $0.16 0.24 gems | 0.3% | 389 | 414.8 | 0.94× | | [P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-well-worn) | 17.0% | $0.05 0.07 gems | 0.1% | 414 | 414.8 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=medium-50-50) [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.94 13.75 gems $17.52 26.95 gems 1.96x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [P250 | Valence (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-well-worn) Hidden $8.94 13.75 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-factory-new) Hidden $8.94 13.75 gems $0.16 0.24 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-factory-new) [Bahati](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Bahati) $8.94 13.75 gems $0.16 0.24 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Toybox (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-toybox-factory-new) Hidden $8.94 13.75 gems $19.43 29.89 gems 2.17x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.94 13.75 gems $17.52 26.95 gems 1.96x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [P250 | Valence (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-well-worn) Hidden $8.94 13.75 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) [Bahati](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Bahati) $8.94 13.75 gems $17.52 26.95 gems 1.96x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) Hidden $8.94 13.75 gems $16.76 25.79 gems 1.88x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [P250 | Valence (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-well-worn) [Guigz](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Guigz) $8.94 13.75 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $8.94 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 30.0% Covert 10.0% #d32ee6 10.0% mil spec 16.0% Rare 17.0% blue 17.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt