--- title: "Medusa's Gaze case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Medusa's Gaze ($61.29) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 92.83% over 915 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/medusas-gaze rendered: 2026-11-11T22:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Medusa's Gaze](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/medusas-gaze) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Medusa's Gaze A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/medusas-gaze?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/medusas-gaze?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/medusas-gaze) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/medusas-gaze?window=all) Price · $61.29 · 94.29 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $55.15 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.83% · 915 openings, odds method Variance · 12.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 160.01% ±63.86 120 openings 7 days · 99.27% ±24.86 792 openings 30 days · 92.83% ±23.13 915 openings since tracking started · 92.83% ±23.13 915 openings 69.0% 146.8% 224.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/medusas-gaze?window=24h) | 120 | 160.01% ±63.9 | +2.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/medusas-gaze?window=7d) | 792 | 99.27% ±24.9 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/medusas-gaze) | 915 | 92.83% ±23.1 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/medusas-gaze?window=all) | 915 | 92.83% ±23.1 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 915 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $2,925 4,500 gems | 26.5% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.09× | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $520 800 gems | 9.4% | 9 | 9.2 | 0.98× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $401 617 gems | 10.9% | 17 | 13.7 | 1.24× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 50 | $242 373 gems | 8.8% | 21 | 18.3 | 1.15× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Minimal Wear) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $133 205 gems | 12.1% | 43 | 45.8 | 0.94× | | [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 10.0% | $83.66 129 gems | 15.2% | 76 | 91.5 | 0.83× | | [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) | 15.0% | $34.76 53.48 gems | 9.5% | 142 | 137.3 | 1.03× | | [MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-ocean-foam-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $17.17 26.42 gems | 4.7% | 136 | 137.3 | 0.99× | | [PP-Bizon \| Seabird (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-factory-new) | 20.0% | $7.75 11.93 gems | 2.8% | 180 | 183.0 | 0.98× | | [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-factory-new) | 30.0% | $0.31 0.47 gems | 0.2% | 286 | 274.5 | 1.04× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) [helix](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/helix) $61.29 94.29 gems $2,925 4,500 gems 47.73x 2026-11-11 17:18 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $61.29 94.29 gems $2,925 4,500 gems 47.73x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $61.29 94.29 gems $2,925 4,500 gems 47.73x 2026-11-06 09:14 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $61.29 94.29 gems $2,925 4,500 gems 47.73x 2026-11-06 04:53 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $61.29 94.29 gems $2,925 4,500 gems 47.73x 2026-11-05 17:33 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) Hidden $61.29 94.29 gems $520 800 gems 8.48x 2026-11-11 17:35 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) Hidden $61.29 94.29 gems $520 800 gems 8.48x 2026-11-09 20:07 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) Hidden $61.29 94.29 gems $520 800 gems 8.48x 2026-11-09 18:10 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) Hidden $61.29 94.29 gems $520 800 gems 8.48x 2026-11-09 18:06 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) Hidden $61.29 94.29 gems $520 800 gems 8.48x 2026-11-08 15:31 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=medusas-gaze) [M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-factory-new) Hidden $61.29 94.29 gems $0.31 0.47 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Minimal Wear) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-minimal-wear) Hidden $61.29 94.29 gems $133 205 gems 2.18x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) [motsibaerli](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/motsibaerli) $61.29 94.29 gems $34.76 53.48 gems 0.57x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $61.29 94.29 gems $34.76 53.48 gems 0.57x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC [M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-factory-new) Hidden $61.29 94.29 gems $0.31 0.47 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC [PP-Bizon | Seabird (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-factory-new) [motsibaerli](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/motsibaerli) $61.29 94.29 gems $7.75 11.93 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC [PP-Bizon | Seabird (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-factory-new) Hidden $61.29 94.29 gems $7.75 11.93 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 19:15 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $61.29 94.29 gems $242 373 gems 3.96x 2026-11-11 19:15 UTC [PP-Bizon | Seabird (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-factory-new) Hidden $61.29 94.29 gems $7.75 11.93 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 19:15 UTC [MP7 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-ocean-foam-minimal-wear) Hidden $61.29 94.29 gems $17.17 26.42 gems 0.28x 2026-11-11 19:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $61.29 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.5% classified 1.0% gold 1.5% epic 5.0% industrial 10.0% Mythical 15.0% Restricted 15.0% Common 20.0% Uncommon 30.0% best hit $2,925 (47.73x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt