--- title: "Melatonin case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Melatonin ($58.32) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 97.57% over 474 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/melatonin rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Melatonin](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/melatonin) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Melatonin A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/melatonin?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/melatonin?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/melatonin) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/melatonin?window=all) Price · $58.32 · 89.73 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $52.49 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.57% · 474 openings, odds method Variance · 9.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 21 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 97.57% ±27.56 474 openings 30 days · 97.57% ±27.56 474 openings since tracking started · 97.57% ±27.56 474 openings -0.5% 103.3% 207.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/melatonin?window=24h) | 16 | 56.29% ±150.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/melatonin?window=7d) | 474 | 97.57% ±27.6 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/melatonin) | 474 | 97.57% ±27.6 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/melatonin?window=all) | 474 | 97.57% ±27.6 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 474 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,799 5,845 gems | 7.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $1,195 1,838 gems | 17.1% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.69× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $543 835 gems | 10.3% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.05× | | [★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $532 818 gems | 10.1% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.05× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $249 383 gems | 9.5% | 9 | 9.5 | 0.95× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $180 277 gems | 10.3% | 14 | 14.2 | 0.98× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $137 211 gems | 7.8% | 20 | 14.2 | 1.41× | | [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $127 196 gems | 7.3% | 13 | 14.2 | 0.91× | | [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $85.08 131 gems | 4.9% | 18 | 14.2 | 1.27× | | [M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $64.35 99 gems | 6.1% | 19 | 23.7 | 0.80× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $17.30 26.61 gems | 2.5% | 45 | 35.5 | 1.27× | | [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 10.0% | $12.41 19.09 gems | 2.4% | 55 | 47.4 | 1.16× | | [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) | 12.5% | $5.79 8.91 gems | 1.4% | 59 | 59.3 | 1.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $4.79 7.37 gems | 1.4% | 71 | 71.1 | 1.00× | | [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $3.72 5.73 gems | 1.1% | 63 | 71.1 | 0.89× | | [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-factory-new) | 18.1% | $1.96 3.01 gems | 0.7% | 72 | 86.0 | 0.84× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) Hidden $58.32 89.73 gems $1,195 1,838 gems 20.48x 2026-11-09 12:20 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) [PEPE](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/PEPE) $58.32 89.73 gems $1,195 1,838 gems 20.48x 2026-11-08 15:29 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) Hidden $58.32 89.73 gems $1,195 1,838 gems 20.48x 2026-11-06 04:56 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) Hidden $58.32 89.73 gems $1,195 1,838 gems 20.48x 2026-11-06 04:30 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) Hidden $58.32 89.73 gems $1,195 1,838 gems 20.48x 2026-11-06 04:12 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) Hidden $58.32 89.73 gems $1,195 1,838 gems 20.48x 2026-11-05 04:29 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $58.32 89.73 gems $543 835 gems 9.30x 2026-11-06 13:51 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $58.32 89.73 gems $543 835 gems 9.30x 2026-11-06 04:17 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $58.32 89.73 gems $543 835 gems 9.30x 2026-11-05 19:48 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $58.32 89.73 gems $543 835 gems 9.30x 2026-11-05 05:13 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=melatonin) [UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-minimal-wear) Hidden $58.32 89.73 gems $3.72 5.73 gems 0.06x 2026-11-10 23:00 UTC [M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-factory-new) Hidden $58.32 89.73 gems $64.35 99 gems 1.10x 2026-11-10 23:00 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-factory-new) Hidden $58.32 89.73 gems $1.96 3.01 gems 0.03x 2026-11-10 23:00 UTC [UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-minimal-wear) Hidden $58.32 89.73 gems $3.72 5.73 gems 0.06x 2026-11-10 23:00 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) Hidden $58.32 89.73 gems $180 277 gems 3.09x 2026-11-10 23:00 UTC [UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-minimal-wear) [Helqxz](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Helqxz) $58.32 89.73 gems $3.72 5.73 gems 0.06x 2026-11-10 23:00 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) Hidden $58.32 89.73 gems $12.41 19.09 gems 0.21x 2026-11-10 22:49 UTC [Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) Hidden $58.32 89.73 gems $4.79 7.37 gems 0.08x 2026-11-10 22:49 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) Hidden $58.32 89.73 gems $137 211 gems 2.35x 2026-11-10 22:49 UTC [Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) Hidden $58.32 89.73 gems $4.79 7.37 gems 0.08x 2026-11-10 22:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $58.32 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.9% gold 1.0% covert 19.5% sunny 2.0% epic 3.0% rare 3.0% pink 25.0% Mythical 12.5% Legendary 15.0% restricted 18.1% best hit $1,195 (20.48x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt