--- title: "Meltdown Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Meltdown Case ($29.66) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 107.26% over 643 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/meltdown-case rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Meltdown Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/meltdown-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Meltdown Case A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/meltdown-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/meltdown-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/meltdown-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/meltdown-case?window=all) Price · $29.66 · 45.63 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $26.69 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 107.26% · 643 openings, odds method Variance · 6.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 87 openings · below min 7 days · 106.88% ±22.09 525 openings 30 days · 107.26% ±19.96 643 openings since tracking started · 107.26% ±19.96 643 openings 67.5% 122.3% 177.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/meltdown-case?window=24h) | 87 | 122.17% ±54.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/meltdown-case?window=7d) | 525 | 106.88% ±22.1 | +1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/meltdown-case) | 643 | 107.26% ±20.0 | +1.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/meltdown-case?window=all) | 643 | 107.26% ±20.0 | +1.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 646 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $353 543 gems | 66.1% | 42 | 32.3 | 1.30× | | [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $71.92 111 gems | 13.5% | 29 | 32.3 | 0.90× | | [AUG \| Carved Jade (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-factory-new) | 10.0% | $28.33 43.59 gems | 10.6% | 65 | 64.6 | 1.01× | | [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-factory-new) | 10.0% | $12.93 19.9 gems | 4.8% | 66 | 64.6 | 1.02× | | [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $4.07 6.26 gems | 1.5% | 65 | 64.6 | 1.01× | | [AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-field-tested) | 20.0% | $2.47 3.8 gems | 1.9% | 140 | 129.2 | 1.08× | | [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $1.49 2.3 gems | 1.1% | 118 | 129.2 | 0.91× | | [P90 \| Grim (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.66 1.02 gems | 0.5% | 121 | 129.2 | 0.94× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=meltdown-case) [MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.66 45.63 gems $1.49 2.3 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC [MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.66 45.63 gems $1.49 2.3 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC [MAG-7 | Core Breach (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-factory-new) Hidden $29.66 45.63 gems $12.93 19.9 gems 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC [M4A1-S | Liquidation (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.66 45.63 gems $4.07 6.26 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC [MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.66 45.63 gems $1.49 2.3 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC [P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) [Thomas the termonuclear bomb](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Thomas%20the%20termonuclear%20bomb) $29.66 45.63 gems $71.92 111 gems 2.42x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC [Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-factory-new) Hidden $29.66 45.63 gems $353 543 gems 11.89x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [AUG | Stymphalian (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-field-tested) Hidden $29.66 45.63 gems $2.47 3.8 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-factory-new) Hidden $29.66 45.63 gems $353 543 gems 11.89x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.66 45.63 gems $1.49 2.3 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $29.66 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 30.0% Rare 10.0% #8847ff 10.0% violet 10.0% Legendary 20.0% Mil Spec 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt