--- title: "Heavy Metal case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Heavy Metal ($106.16) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 11 items with odds, observed 99.08% over 296 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/metal-monkey rendered: 2026-11-11T14:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Heavy Metal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/metal-monkey) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Heavy Metal A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/metal-monkey?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/metal-monkey?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/metal-monkey) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/metal-monkey?window=all) Price · $106.16 · 163 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $95.55 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 99.08% · 296 openings, odds method Variance · 4.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 47 openings · below min 7 days · 95.85% ±35.05 125 openings 30 days · 99.08% ±22.78 296 openings since tracking started · 99.08% ±22.78 296 openings 46.5% 104.3% 162.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/metal-monkey?window=24h) | 47 | 104.13% ±57.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/metal-monkey?window=7d) | 125 | 95.85% ±35.1 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/metal-monkey) | 296 | 99.08% ±22.8 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/metal-monkey?window=all) | 296 | 99.08% ±22.8 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 296 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,746 5,763 gems | 3.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [Sticker \| Fnatic (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 250 | $1,027 1,581 gems | 4.3% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.69× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $918 1,413 gems | 4.8% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $769 1,184 gems | 8.1% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.68× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $691 1,064 gems | 14.5% | 3 | 5.9 | 0.51× | | [Sticker \| Natus Vincere \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-katowice-2014) | 1 in 33 | $458 705 gems | 14.4% | 12 | 8.9 | 1.35× | | [Sticker \| Fnatic \| Katowice 2014 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-katowice-2014) | 1 in 20 | $258 397 gems | 13.5% | 19 | 14.8 | 1.28× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $248 382 gems | 20.8% | 27 | 23.7 | 1.14× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $129 198 gems | 13.5% | 31 | 29.6 | 1.05× | | [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-minimal-wear) | 35.0% | $5.40 8.31 gems | 2.0% | 100 | 103.6 | 0.97× | | [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-well-worn) | 35.0% | $0.91 1.4 gems | 0.3% | 99 | 103.6 | 0.96× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $106 163 gems $3,746 5,763 gems 35.29x 2026-11-04 04:16 UTC [Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $106 163 gems $1,027 1,581 gems 9.68x 2026-11-10 21:37 UTC [Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $106 163 gems $1,027 1,581 gems 9.68x 2026-11-04 09:38 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $106 163 gems $769 1,184 gems 7.25x 2026-11-10 21:37 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $106 163 gems $769 1,184 gems 7.25x 2026-11-04 09:36 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $106 163 gems $691 1,064 gems 6.51x 2026-11-08 17:21 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $106 163 gems $691 1,064 gems 6.51x 2026-11-04 04:21 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $106 163 gems $691 1,064 gems 6.51x 2026-11-03 10:16 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=metal-monkey) [Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-well-worn) Hidden $106 163 gems $0.91 1.4 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-minimal-wear) Hidden $106 163 gems $5.40 8.31 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [Sticker | Fnatic | Katowice 2014 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-katowice-2014) Hidden $106 163 gems $258 397 gems 2.43x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) Hidden $106 163 gems $248 382 gems 2.34x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-well-worn) Hidden $106 163 gems $0.91 1.4 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-minimal-wear) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $106 163 gems $5.40 8.31 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-katowice-2014) Hidden $106 163 gems $458 705 gems 4.32x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC [Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-well-worn) Hidden $106 163 gems $0.91 1.4 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC [AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) Hidden $106 163 gems $129 198 gems 1.21x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC [AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) Hidden $106 163 gems $248 382 gems 2.34x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $106 | 90.00% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 21.1% remarkable 0.4% extraordinary 0.5% high 3.0% High Grade 5.0% classified 70.0% best hit $3,746 (35.29x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt