--- title: "Metallurgy case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Metallurgy ($59.31) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 18 items with odds, observed 90.81% over 446 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/metallurgy rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Metallurgy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/metallurgy) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Metallurgy A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/metallurgy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/metallurgy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/metallurgy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/metallurgy?window=all) Price · $59.31 · 91.24 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $53.37 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.81% · 446 openings, odds method Variance · 4.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 74.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 31 openings · below min 7 days · 92.27% ±20.49 412 openings 30 days · 90.81% ±19.69 446 openings since tracking started · 90.81% ±19.69 446 openings -0.5% 69.0% 138.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/metallurgy?window=24h) | 31 | 63.24% ±74.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/metallurgy?window=7d) | 412 | 92.27% ±20.5 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/metallurgy) | 446 | 90.81% ±19.7 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/metallurgy?window=all) | 446 | 90.81% ±19.7 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 446 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,170 1,800 gems | 5.5% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.90× | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $1,048 1,613 gems | 5.9% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $712 1,095 gems | 6.7% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.90× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $535 822 gems | 7.5% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.20× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $391 602 gems | 7.3% | 5 | 4.5 | 1.12× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $364 560 gems | 6.8% | 7 | 4.5 | 1.57× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $323 498 gems | 6.1% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $234 360 gems | 5.5% | 5 | 5.6 | 0.90× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $180 278 gems | 4.2% | 10 | 5.6 | 1.79× | | [★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $166 255 gems | 3.9% | 6 | 5.6 | 1.08× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $153 235 gems | 4.3% | 2 | 6.7 | 0.30× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 57 | $130 200 gems | 4.3% | 10 | 7.8 | 1.28× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $124 191 gems | 4.6% | 12 | 8.9 | 1.35× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $111 170 gems | 6.2% | 13 | 13.4 | 0.97× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $87.45 135 gems | 6.6% | 18 | 17.8 | 1.01× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $77.82 120 gems | 7.3% | 26 | 22.3 | 1.17× | | [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · SMGs](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-case-hardened-field-tested) | 35.0% | $5.69 8.75 gems | 3.7% | 159 | 156.1 | 1.02× | | [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) | 39.2% | $4.97 7.64 gems | 3.6% | 163 | 174.8 | 0.93× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $59.31 91.24 gems $1,170 1,800 gems 19.73x 2026-11-08 22:49 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $59.31 91.24 gems $712 1,095 gems 12.00x 2026-11-06 03:52 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $59.31 91.24 gems $712 1,095 gems 12.00x 2026-11-06 03:46 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $59.31 91.24 gems $535 822 gems 9.01x 2026-11-07 01:47 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $59.31 91.24 gems $535 822 gems 9.01x 2026-11-06 04:29 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $59.31 91.24 gems $535 822 gems 9.01x 2026-11-06 00:18 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) [Smiling Grizzly](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Smiling%20Grizzly) $59.31 91.24 gems $535 822 gems 9.01x 2026-11-04 14:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=metallurgy) [Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · SMGs](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $59.31 91.24 gems $5.69 8.75 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $59.31 91.24 gems $4.97 7.64 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $59.31 91.24 gems $4.97 7.64 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $59.31 91.24 gems $4.97 7.64 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-battle-scarred) Hidden $59.31 91.24 gems $77.82 120 gems 1.31x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · SMGs](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-case-hardened-field-tested) [Code: XTRA $500 lb](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Code%3A%20XTRA%20%24500%20lb) $59.31 91.24 gems $5.69 8.75 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $59.31 91.24 gems $4.97 7.64 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $59.31 91.24 gems $4.97 7.64 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · SMGs](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $59.31 91.24 gems $5.69 8.75 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $59.31 91.24 gems $4.97 7.64 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $59.31 | 90.00% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed gold 12.0% covert 8.1% Immortal 0.5% classified 1.0% covert knife 4.3% SMGs 35.0% restricted 39.2% best hit $1,170 (19.73x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt