--- title: "Mid case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Mid ($289.23) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 91.66% over 580 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mid rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Mid](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mid) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Mid A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mid?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mid?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mid) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mid?window=all) Price · $289.23 · 445 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $260.31 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.66% · 580 openings, odds method Variance · 14.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 23 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 59 openings · below min 7 days · 79.29% ±33.64 504 openings 30 days · 91.66% ±31.36 580 openings since tracking started · 91.66% ±31.36 580 openings -0.5% 90.5% 181.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mid?window=24h) | 59 | 82.56% ±98.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mid?window=7d) | 504 | 79.29% ±33.6 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mid) | 580 | 91.66% ±31.4 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mid?window=all) | 580 | 91.66% ±31.4 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 592 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $25.9K 39,840 gems | 5.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $9,740 14,984 gems | 9.4% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.35× | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $6,013 9,250 gems | 23.1% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.35× | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $3,346 5,148 gems | 38.6% | 14 | 17.8 | 0.79× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $799 1,230 gems | 18.4% | 40 | 35.5 | 1.13× | | [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-factory-new) | 10.0% | $140 215 gems | 5.4% | 58 | 59.2 | 0.98× | | [Five-SeveN \| Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) | 79.7% | $0.72 1.1 gems | 0.2% | 470 | 471.8 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $289 445 gems $9,740 14,984 gems 33.67x 2026-11-04 17:17 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $289 445 gems $9,740 14,984 gems 33.67x 2026-11-04 03:26 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [Kick.com/Romix](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Kick.com%2FRomix) $289 445 gems $6,013 9,250 gems 20.79x 2026-11-10 20:04 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [MpiXelss](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/MpiXelss) $289 445 gems $6,013 9,250 gems 20.79x 2026-11-10 09:32 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [MpiXelss](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/MpiXelss) $289 445 gems $6,013 9,250 gems 20.79x 2026-11-10 09:16 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [SkyScar](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/SkyScar) $289 445 gems $6,013 9,250 gems 20.79x 2026-11-10 01:46 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $289 445 gems $6,013 9,250 gems 20.79x 2026-11-06 23:16 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $289 445 gems $6,013 9,250 gems 20.79x 2026-11-05 05:45 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $289 445 gems $6,013 9,250 gems 20.79x 2026-11-03 23:38 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $289 445 gems $6,013 9,250 gems 20.79x 2026-11-03 23:22 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=mid) [Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) Hidden $289 445 gems $0.72 1.1 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:56 UTC [Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) Hidden $289 445 gems $0.72 1.1 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:56 UTC [Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) [Kick/HarryJZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Kick%2FHarryJZ) $289 445 gems $0.72 1.1 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:56 UTC [Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) Hidden $289 445 gems $0.72 1.1 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:56 UTC [Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) Hidden $289 445 gems $0.72 1.1 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:56 UTC [Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) [Kick/HarryJZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Kick%2FHarryJZ) $289 445 gems $0.72 1.1 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:56 UTC [Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) Hidden $289 445 gems $0.72 1.1 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC [Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) Hidden $289 445 gems $0.72 1.1 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC [Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) [Kick/HarryJZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Kick%2FHarryJZ) $289 445 gems $0.72 1.1 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC [Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) Hidden $289 445 gems $0.72 1.1 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $289 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 0.1% Covert 0.3% contraband 4.0% covert 6.0% restricted 10.0% mil spec 79.7% best hit $9,740 (33.67x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt