--- title: "Midnight case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Midnight ($52.41) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 71.15% over 85 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/midnight rendered: 2026-11-11T21:16Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Midnight](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/midnight) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Midnight A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/midnight?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/midnight?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/midnight) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/midnight?window=all) Price · $52.41 · 80.63 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $47.17 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 71.15% · 85 openings, odds method Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 3 openings · below min 7 days · 47 openings · below min 30 days · 85 openings · below min since tracking started · 85 openings · below min -0.5% 83.8% 168.0% **Small sample.** 85 openings and 12.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/midnight?window=24h) | 3 | 19.48% ±147.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/midnight?window=7d) | 47 | 51.32% ±37.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/midnight) | 85 | 71.15% ±27.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/midnight?window=all) | 85 | 71.15% ±27.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 85 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $188 290 gems | 59.8% | 7 | 12.7 | 0.55× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 15.0% | $102 157 gems | 32.5% | 15 | 12.7 | 1.18× | | [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) | 15.0% | $13.38 20.59 gems | 4.3% | 13 | 12.7 | 1.02× | | [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $5.65 8.7 gems | 1.8% | 16 | 12.7 | 1.25× | | [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 15.0% | $3.85 5.93 gems | 1.2% | 10 | 12.7 | 0.78× | | [Glock-18 \| Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $0.90 1.38 gems | 0.3% | 13 | 12.7 | 1.02× | | [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.57 0.87 gems | 0.1% | 11 | 8.5 | 1.29× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=midnight) [Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) Hidden $52.41 80.63 gems $13.38 20.59 gems 0.26x 2026-11-11 20:03 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) Hidden $52.41 80.63 gems $3.85 5.93 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 20:03 UTC [Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $52.41 80.63 gems $13.38 20.59 gems 0.26x 2026-11-11 20:03 UTC [Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) Hidden $52.41 80.63 gems $13.38 20.59 gems 0.26x 2026-11-10 19:35 UTC [Glock-18 | Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $52.41 80.63 gems $0.90 1.38 gems 0.02x 2026-11-10 19:35 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $52.41 80.63 gems $102 157 gems 1.95x 2026-11-10 19:35 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) Hidden $52.41 80.63 gems $3.85 5.93 gems 0.07x 2026-11-10 19:35 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $52.41 80.63 gems $0.57 0.87 gems 0.01x 2026-11-10 19:35 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) Hidden $52.41 80.63 gems $3.85 5.93 gems 0.07x 2026-11-10 19:35 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $52.41 80.63 gems $0.57 0.87 gems 0.01x 2026-11-10 19:35 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $52.41 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 30.0% sunny 15.0% industrial 30.0% classified 15.0% restricted 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt