--- title: "Mighty Knight case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mighty Knight ($39.10) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 79.70% over 244 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mighty-knight rendered: 2026-11-11T22:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Mighty Knight](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mighty-knight) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Mighty Knight A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mighty-knight?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mighty-knight?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mighty-knight) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mighty-knight?window=all) Price · $39.10 · 60.15 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $35.18 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.70% · 244 openings, odds method Variance · 4.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 71.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 74.68% ±30.89 189 openings 30 days · 79.70% ±27.19 244 openings since tracking started · 79.70% ±27.19 244 openings -0.5% 120.8% 242.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mighty-knight?window=24h) | 8 | 91.07% ±150.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mighty-knight?window=7d) | 189 | 74.68% ±30.9 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mighty-knight) | 244 | 79.70% ±27.2 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mighty-knight?window=all) | 244 | 79.70% ±27.2 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 244 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Knight (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1,027 1,580 gems | 14.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $294 453 gems | 12.6% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.09× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $267 410 gems | 11.4% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.09× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-field-tested) | 10.5% | $52.79 81.22 gems | 15.8% | 19 | 25.6 | 0.74× | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-field-tested) | 15.0% | $41.46 63.78 gems | 17.7% | 48 | 36.6 | 1.31× | | [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) | 17.0% | $31.15 47.92 gems | 15.1% | 45 | 41.5 | 1.08× | | [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 18.0% | $17.59 27.06 gems | 9.0% | 35 | 43.9 | 0.80× | | [SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-deaths-head-field-tested) | 36.0% | $3.92 6.03 gems | 4.0% | 89 | 87.8 | 1.01× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=mighty-knight) [★ Moto Gloves | Transport (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-field-tested) Hidden $39.10 60.15 gems $52.79 81.22 gems 1.35x 2026-11-11 03:10 UTC [SSG 08 | Death's Head (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-deaths-head-field-tested) Hidden $39.10 60.15 gems $3.92 6.03 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 03:10 UTC [★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-field-tested) Hidden $39.10 60.15 gems $41.46 63.78 gems 1.06x 2026-11-11 03:10 UTC [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) [Ken](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Ken) $39.10 60.15 gems $31.15 47.92 gems 0.80x 2026-11-11 03:10 UTC [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) Hidden $39.10 60.15 gems $31.15 47.92 gems 0.80x 2026-11-11 03:09 UTC [★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-field-tested) Hidden $39.10 60.15 gems $41.46 63.78 gems 1.06x 2026-11-11 03:09 UTC [★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-field-tested) Hidden $39.10 60.15 gems $41.46 63.78 gems 1.06x 2026-11-11 03:09 UTC [★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-field-tested) [Ken](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Ken) $39.10 60.15 gems $41.46 63.78 gems 1.06x 2026-11-11 03:09 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $39.10 60.15 gems $267 410 gems 6.82x 2026-11-10 16:28 UTC [SSG 08 | Death's Head (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-deaths-head-field-tested) [vamos](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/vamos) $39.10 60.15 gems $3.92 6.03 gems 0.10x 2026-11-10 16:28 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $39.10 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 18.5% covert 20.0% extraordinary 25.5% restricted 36.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt