--- title: "Millionaire case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Millionaire ($82.69) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 84.17% over 1,409 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/millionaire rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Millionaire](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/millionaire) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Millionaire A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/millionaire?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/millionaire?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/millionaire) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/millionaire?window=all) Price · $82.69 · 127 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $74.43 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.17% · 1,409 openings, odds method Variance · 13.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 148 openings · below min 7 days · 85.48% ±19.74 1,283 openings 30 days · 84.17% ±18.84 1,409 openings since tracking started · 84.17% ±18.84 1,409 openings 1.5% 60.2% 119.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/millionaire?window=24h) | 148 | 60.18% ±58.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/millionaire?window=7d) | 1,283 | 85.48% ±19.7 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/millionaire) | 1,409 | 84.17% ±18.8 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/millionaire?window=all) | 1,409 | 84.17% ±18.8 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,427 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1,756 2,701 gems | 70.8% | 40 | 42.8 | 0.93× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $112 172 gems | 10.5% | 101 | 99.9 | 1.01× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $107 165 gems | 14.4% | 113 | 142.7 | 0.79× | | [P2000 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-silver-factory-new) | 20.0% | $8.27 12.73 gems | 2.2% | 295 | 285.4 | 1.03× | | [P90 \| Tiger Pit (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-tiger-pit-factory-new) | 30.0% | $3.64 5.6 gems | 1.5% | 432 | 428.1 | 1.01× | | [Sticker \| Dirty Money sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dirty-money) | 30.0% | $1.42 2.19 gems | 0.6% | 446 | 428.1 | 1.04× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $82.69 127 gems $1,756 2,701 gems 21.23x 2026-11-11 10:54 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $82.69 127 gems $1,756 2,701 gems 21.23x 2026-11-11 00:26 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $82.69 127 gems $1,756 2,701 gems 21.23x 2026-11-10 14:45 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $82.69 127 gems $1,756 2,701 gems 21.23x 2026-11-10 14:43 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $82.69 127 gems $1,756 2,701 gems 21.23x 2026-11-10 14:17 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) [MpiXelss](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/MpiXelss) $82.69 127 gems $1,756 2,701 gems 21.23x 2026-11-10 09:24 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $82.69 127 gems $1,756 2,701 gems 21.23x 2026-11-10 09:02 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $82.69 127 gems $1,756 2,701 gems 21.23x 2026-11-10 09:02 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $82.69 127 gems $1,756 2,701 gems 21.23x 2026-11-10 08:41 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $82.69 127 gems $1,756 2,701 gems 21.23x 2026-11-10 08:20 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=millionaire) [P90 | Tiger Pit (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-tiger-pit-factory-new) Hidden $82.69 127 gems $3.64 5.6 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $82.69 127 gems $107 165 gems 1.30x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC [Sticker | Dirty Money sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dirty-money) Hidden $82.69 127 gems $1.42 2.19 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC [Sticker | Dirty Money sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dirty-money) Hidden $82.69 127 gems $1.42 2.19 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC [P90 | Tiger Pit (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-tiger-pit-factory-new) Hidden $82.69 127 gems $3.64 5.6 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC [Sticker | Dirty Money sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dirty-money) [Energetic Lion](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Energetic%20Lion) $82.69 127 gems $1.42 2.19 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC [P90 | Tiger Pit (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-tiger-pit-factory-new) Hidden $82.69 127 gems $3.64 5.6 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:02 UTC [P2000 | Silver (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-silver-factory-new) Hidden $82.69 127 gems $8.27 12.73 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 11:02 UTC [P2000 | Silver (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-silver-factory-new) Hidden $82.69 127 gems $8.27 12.73 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 11:02 UTC [Sticker | Dirty Money sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dirty-money) Hidden $82.69 127 gems $1.42 2.19 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $82.69 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% covert knife 10.0% mil spec 20.0% Rare 30.0% High Grade 30.0% best hit $1,756 (21.23x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt