--- title: "Minty Condition case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Minty Condition ($34.42) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 83.53% over 3,131 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/minty-condition rendered: 2026-11-11T13:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Minty Condition](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/minty-condition) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Minty Condition A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/minty-condition?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/minty-condition?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/minty-condition) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/minty-condition?window=all) Price · $34.42 · 52.95 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $30.97 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.53% · 3,131 openings, odds method Variance · 113.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 500 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 415 openings · below min 7 days · 2,459 openings · below min 30 days · 83.53% ±37.35 3,131 openings since tracking started · 83.53% ±37.35 3,131 openings 43.0% 155.3% 267.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/minty-condition?window=24h) | 415 | 164.21% ±102.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/minty-condition?window=7d) | 2,459 | 86.01% ±42.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/minty-condition) | 3,131 | 83.53% ±37.4 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/minty-condition?window=all) | 3,131 | 83.53% ±37.4 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,175 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $8,074 12,421 gems | 52.1% | 5 | 6.4 | 0.79× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,360 2,092 gems | 8.8% | 6 | 6.4 | 0.94× | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $359 552 gems | 7.0% | 24 | 19.1 | 1.26× | | [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $171 263 gems | 11.0% | 71 | 63.5 | 1.12× | | [MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $78.23 120 gems | 5.1% | 68 | 63.5 | 1.07× | | [Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-berries-and-cherries-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $54.67 84.11 gems | 3.5% | 75 | 63.5 | 1.18× | | [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $29.91 46.01 gems | 2.9% | 99 | 95.3 | 1.04× | | [Nova \| Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-factory-new) | 10.0% | $11.45 17.61 gems | 3.7% | 297 | 317.5 | 0.94× | | [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 10.0% | $8.55 13.16 gems | 2.8% | 305 | 317.5 | 0.96× | | [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 10.0% | $4.86 7.47 gems | 1.6% | 310 | 317.5 | 0.98× | | [P250 \| Mint Kimono (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mint-kimono-factory-new) | 10.0% | $2.58 3.97 gems | 0.8% | 310 | 317.5 | 0.98× | | [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-minimal-wear) | 50.0% | $0.47 0.73 gems | 0.8% | 1,605 | 1587.5 | 1.01× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-factory-new) [( ͡° ᴥ ͡° )](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%28%20%CD%A1%C2%B0%20%E1%B4%A5%20%CD%A1%C2%B0%20%29) $34.42 52.95 gems $8,074 12,421 gems 234.6x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-factory-new) Hidden $34.42 52.95 gems $8,074 12,421 gems 234.6x 2026-11-10 23:58 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-factory-new) Hidden $34.42 52.95 gems $8,074 12,421 gems 234.6x 2026-11-07 03:18 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-factory-new) Hidden $34.42 52.95 gems $8,074 12,421 gems 234.6x 2026-11-04 15:55 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-factory-new) Hidden $34.42 52.95 gems $8,074 12,421 gems 234.6x 2026-11-04 10:24 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-factory-new) Hidden $34.42 52.95 gems $1,360 2,092 gems 39.51x 2026-11-11 08:06 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-factory-new) Hidden $34.42 52.95 gems $1,360 2,092 gems 39.51x 2026-11-06 19:55 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-factory-new) Hidden $34.42 52.95 gems $1,360 2,092 gems 39.51x 2026-11-05 18:40 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-factory-new) Hidden $34.42 52.95 gems $1,360 2,092 gems 39.51x 2026-11-05 07:22 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-factory-new) Hidden $34.42 52.95 gems $1,360 2,092 gems 39.51x 2026-11-04 14:41 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=minty-condition) [P250 | Mint Kimono (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mint-kimono-factory-new) Hidden $34.42 52.95 gems $2.58 3.97 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-minimal-wear) Hidden $34.42 52.95 gems $0.47 0.73 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) [( ͡° ᴥ ͡° )](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%28%20%CD%A1%C2%B0%20%E1%B4%A5%20%CD%A1%C2%B0%20%29) $34.42 52.95 gems $8.55 13.16 gems 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-minimal-wear) Hidden $34.42 52.95 gems $0.47 0.73 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [Nova | Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-factory-new) Hidden $34.42 52.95 gems $11.45 17.61 gems 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-minimal-wear) Hidden $34.42 52.95 gems $0.47 0.73 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [Nova | Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-factory-new) Hidden $34.42 52.95 gems $11.45 17.61 gems 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $34.42 52.95 gems $4.86 7.47 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-minimal-wear) [( ͡° ᴥ ͡° )](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%28%20%CD%A1%C2%B0%20%E1%B4%A5%20%CD%A1%C2%B0%20%29) $34.42 52.95 gems $0.47 0.73 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [MAG-7 | Counter Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-factory-new) Hidden $34.42 52.95 gems $78.23 120 gems 2.27x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $34.42 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.2% legendary 0.2% classified 10.6% restricted 54.0% mil spec 2.0% rare 3.0% industrial 10.0% Legendary 10.0% consumer 10.0% best hit $8,074 (234.6x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt